US Producer Prices Rise 0.3% in October as the Annual Rate Climbs to 6.5%, the Highest Since 2022

US producer prices rose far less in October than in September, but the yearly rate kept climbing. The Producer Price Index for final demand rose 0.3%, seasonally adjusted, the Bureau of Labor Statistics said on Friday 13 November. September's figure was revised up to 1.4% from 1.3%. Before seasonal adjustment, prices were 6.5% higher than a year earlier, the largest 12-month rise since November 2022.

The slowdown came almost entirely from energy, which edged down after a 10% jump the month before. The measure that strips out food, energy and trade services, which many traders treat as core, rose 0.5% for a second month. That is the part of the report the Federal Reserve will notice, and Treasury yields closed higher on the day.

Energy cooled, the rest did not

Final demand energy prices edged down 0.1% in October after rising 10.0% in September, using the revised figure. Diesel fuel fell 7.9%. That swing explains why the headline index dropped from 1.4% to 0.3%: in September, energy alone had driven most of the rise in goods prices.

Strip energy out and the picture changes. Final demand foods rose 1.3%, after 1.1% in September, with fresh and dry vegetables among the indexes that moved higher. Goods excluding food and energy rose 0.5%, up from 0.3%, and the BLS says more than 60% of October's goods increase came from that group. Basic organic chemicals, a common input for plastics and other products, rose 3.9%.

Over 12 months, final demand goods prices are up 10.2%, the largest rise since October 2022. For a currency trader, that matters because goods prices at the factory gate tend to reach shop shelves with a delay. The October consumer price report already showed core prices up 0.3% for a third month.

Freight lifted services

Final demand services rose 0.2%, the fifth monthly increase in a row, after 1.0% in September. Three quarters of the October rise came from a 2.0% increase in transportation and warehousing, and the BLS says more than 80% of the whole services increase came from one index: truck transportation of freight, up 3.9%.

Trade services, which measure the margins wholesalers and retailers earn, fell 0.2% after a 2.1% jump in September. Margins for machinery and vehicle wholesaling dropped 4.2%. Trade margins swing a lot from month to month, which is why the core measure leaves them out. Services excluding trade, transportation and warehousing rose 0.2%, the same as in September.

The table compares September and October for each part of final demand. All figures are seasonally adjusted monthly changes from the October release, so September includes the BLS revisions.

Pipeline prices point both ways

The PPI also tracks prices earlier in the chain of production, known as intermediate demand. Processed goods rose 0.4%, the third rise in a row, and are 14.6% higher than a year earlier, the biggest annual increase since July 2022. Processed materials excluding food and energy climbed 0.9%.

Unprocessed goods fell 3.1%, the largest drop since June, as crude petroleum prices dropped 10.3%. Services for intermediate demand rose 0.6% and are up 6.8% over 12 months, the most since November 2022.

The message is mixed. Raw energy costs eased in October, which should calm the headline numbers in coming months if it lasts. But costs further along the chain, for processed materials and business services, are still rising quickly, and those tend to feed through to finished goods and consumer prices over time.

Yields and the dollar

The release came at 13:30 UTC, about 15 minutes after the European Central Bank set its daily reference rates, so Friday's ECB fixing does not include any reaction. Those rates already showed a strong dollar: EUR/USD was 1.1052, its lowest since April 2025, and USD/JPY 160.00, its highest since 1 September.

The US Treasury's closing yields do capture the reaction. The 2-year yield closed at 4.88% on Friday, up from 4.86% on Thursday and its highest close since 30 September. The 10-year yield rose to 5.15% from 5.10%, the highest since 19 October. A week earlier, on 6 November, the two were 4.51% and 4.86%.

Gold kept falling. Spot gold was $3,887.60 at 08:47 UTC on Saturday 14 November, according to gold-api.com, down from $3,978.80 at 06:22 UTC on Thursday. Higher real yields and a firm dollar both weigh on a metal that pays no interest. Our week in review has the full currency picture.

What it means for the Fed

The Fed held its target range at 3.75% to 4.00% on 28 October, with two officials voting for a rise. Its next decision is on 9 December, and November's consumer price data arrive on 10 December, the day after. So the October CPI and PPI are the last full set of inflation figures policymakers will see before they decide.

The two reports agree on the main point. Headline inflation slowed in October because energy calmed down, while core measures did not: 0.3% for core CPI and 0.5% for the PPI measure excluding food, energy and trade. A core producer reading of 0.5% a month works out to about 6% a year if it continued, far above the Fed's 2% goal for consumer prices, although producer and consumer measures are not directly comparable.

Some PPI series, such as airline fares and portfolio management fees, feed the personal consumption expenditures price index, the Fed's preferred gauge. Analysts use them to update their PCE estimates, but those are private forecasts and we do not quote them here. The official PCE data for October come from the Bureau of Economic Analysis later.

What it means for traders

• Read the core, not the headline. October's 0.3% looks mild, but the 0.5% core reading and the 6.5% annual rate tell you price pressure has not eased.
• Watch the 2-year Treasury yield. At 4.88% it is near its highest close since September, and the dollar has tracked it closely this week.
• Expect revisions. The BLS revised June to September in this release; a soft month can be revised up later, as September was.
• Plan around the next US data and the Fed minutes rather than chasing Friday's move. Our economic calendar shows the dates in your time zone.
• Our EUR/USD analysis and USD/JPY analysis show the live price and the levels we track.

Frequently asked

Sources: US Bureau of Labor Statistics: Producer Price Index, October 2026 · US Treasury: daily par yield curve rates, November 2026 · US Bureau of Labor Statistics: Consumer Price Index, October 2026 · European Central Bank: euro foreign exchange reference rates · gold-api.com: spot gold price