AUD/USD analysis today.

AUD/USD analysis today.

AUD/USD trades near 0.7028 at 10:00 UTC on Wednesday, 19 pips above Tuesday's 0.7009 close and at its highest level since late September. The pair has closed higher for three sessions in a row, from 0.6920 on 15 October, and now sits just under its 100-day average at 0.7037.

AUD/USD at a Glance

AUD/USD · Australian Dollar / US Dollar
0.7028+19 pips (+0.27%)
21 October 2026, 10:00 UTC · change vs previous close
Today's biasNeutral
BearishNeutralBullish
Neutral, range 0.6965 to 0.7047
Today's range0.7010 to 0.703121 pips so far
RSI (14-day)50 · Neutral zone
3070
Moving averages
20-day0.6979 ▲
50-day0.7080 ▼
100-day0.7037 ▼
Price above 1 of 3
20-day range0.6899 to 0.7119
LowHigh

1Three higher closes in a row since the 15 October low at 0.6899.

2Price sits just under the 100-day average at 0.7037.

3A daily close above 0.7050 would open the 50-day average at 0.7080.

Analysis, not financial advice. Check live quotes before trading.

AUD/USD Live Chart and Technical Meter

Both widgets update in real time, so they may differ from the levels written at 10:00 UTC.

AUD/USD live chart

Australian Dollar / US Dollar, real-time price
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AUD/USD technical meter

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Key Support and Resistance Levels

Distance is measured from the price at 10:00 UTC.

R 30.7080+52 pips50-day average and the 16 September low
R 20.7047+19 pips24 September high, just above the 100-day average (0.7037)
R 10.7031+3 pipsWednesday's high so far
Now0.7028CurrentPrice at the time of writing
S 10.7010−18 pipsTuesday's close (0.7009) and Wednesday's low
S 20.6965−63 pipsMonday's low (0.6964), with the 20-day average at 0.6979 just above
S 30.6900−128 pips15 October low (0.6899), the bottom of the last 20 sessions

AUD/USD Trading Plan Today

Three setups for the next session: sell a test of 0.7040 to 0.7050, buy a confirmed daily close above 0.7050, or buy a dip into 0.6970 to 0.6985 with a stop below 0.6945. The US dollar and risk appetite remain the main drivers, so watch US Treasury yields and stock markets alongside the chart.

Sell

Sell the 100-day test

Entry
0.7040–0.7050
Stop
0.7075
TP 1
0.7010
TP 2
0.6985
Risk : reward1:1.2–2.0
Possible gain35–60 pips
Buy

Buy the breakout

Entry
Above 0.7050 (close)
Stop
0.7020
TP 1
0.7080
TP 2
0.7110
Risk : reward1:1.0–2.0
Possible gain30–60 pips
Buy

Buy the dip

Entry
0.6970–0.6985
Stop
0.6945
TP 1
0.7025
TP 2
0.7045
Risk : reward1:1.5–2.1
Possible gain48–68 pips

AUD/USD tends to move most in two windows: the Sydney and Tokyo morning, when Australian and Chinese data come out, and the London and New York overlap, when US data and Treasury yields take over.

Keep each trade's risk to 1% to 2% of your account, and work out the size with the position size calculator before you enter.

Show the setups as a table
Market BiasEntry ZoneStop LossTake Profit 1Take Profit 2Risk RewardPossible Gain (pips)
Bearish0.7040–0.70500.70750.70100.69851:1.2–2.035–60
BullishAbove 0.7050 (close)0.70200.70800.71101:1.0–2.030–60
Bullish0.6970–0.69850.69450.70250.70451:1.5–2.148–68

AUD/USD Price Outlook: Bull and Bear Cases

Bearish scenario

If the 100-day average holds the price back again, AUD/USD could slip to 0.7010 and then 0.6965. A daily close below 0.6965 would bring the 15 October low near 0.6900 back into view.

Bullish scenario

A daily close above 0.7050 would clear the 100-day average and the 24 September high, opening 0.7080, where the 50-day average sits. Above that, the pair spent mid-September between 0.7110 and 0.7140.

AUD/USD Market Structure and Indicators

20-day average0.6979Price above by 49 pips
50-day average0.7080Price below by 52 pips
100-day average0.7037Price below by 9 pips
14-day RSI50Between 30 and 70

AUD/USD fell from 0.7142 on 21 September to 0.6907 on 1 October, then spent most of October between 0.6935 and 0.7015. A drop to 0.6899 on 15 October, with a close at 0.6920, was bought straight away, and the pair has closed higher on 16, 19 and 20 October. Price now sits above the 20-day average (0.6979) and just under the 100-day (0.7037), with the 50-day higher at 0.7080.

The 14-day RSI near 50 shows momentum back in balance after the late-September slide. The test now is whether buyers can clear the 0.7031 to 0.7047 zone, where the 100-day average meets the 24 September high. Every rally since late September has stopped below that average.

Last 7 Days Recap

0.70190.69590.6899Mon12 OctTue13 OctWed14 OctThu15 OctFri16 OctMon19 OctTue20 Oct

AUD/USD rose 21 pips over the last seven trading days, from 0.6988 to 0.7009, with four higher closes and three lower ones. The low came on 15 October, when the pair lost 60 pips to close at 0.6920 after touching 0.6899, but it won all of that back by Tuesday, when its 0.7009 close was the best since 28 September.

DateOpenHighLowCloseChange
Mon 12 Oct0.69870.69960.69570.6958−30 pips (−0.43%)
Tue 13 Oct0.69580.69890.69530.6986+28 pips (+0.40%)
Wed 14 Oct0.69850.70150.69530.6980−6 pips (−0.09%)
Thu 15 Oct0.69800.69800.68990.6920−60 pips (−0.86%)
Fri 16 Oct0.69210.69700.69210.6949+29 pips (+0.42%)
Mon 19 Oct0.69740.69950.69640.6985+36 pips (+0.52%)
Tue 20 Oct0.69850.70190.69740.7009+24 pips (+0.34%)
7-day total0.69870.70190.68990.7009+21 pips (+0.30%)
Last 7 trading days. UTC daily candles built from hourly market data, weekend trading left out. Change is close to close.

Today’s Economic Calendar and News

  • Fed rate decisionHigh impact
  • Bank of Japan decisionMedium impact
  • RBA rate decisionHigh impact

UK inflation set the tone on Wednesday morning. The ONS said consumer prices rose 3.5% in the year to September, up from 3.1%, with core inflation at 2.8% and services at 3.7%, and motor fuels did most of the lifting. Overnight, Japan's Ministry of Finance reported a September trade deficit of ¥536.6 billion as fuel imports rose 39.4%, and later Statistics South Africa put inflation at 4.5%. The dollar index traded near 101.77 at 10:00 UTC, close to Tuesday's 101.79 close, after the US Treasury put the 10-year yield at 5.12% on Tuesday, down from 5.15% on Monday. The Fed decides on 28 October. For the Aussie, the bigger picture is the rate gap: the Reserve Bank of Australia's cash rate target is 4.60% after a rise that took effect on 30 September, against a Fed range of 3.75% to 4.00%.

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Geopolitical Factors and Market Impact

The main outside risks for AUD/USD are a sharp fall in global stock markets, which tends to send money back into the US dollar, and any disappointment in Chinese data, which can hit demand for Australian exports. Either can push the pair out of its recent range quickly.

Final Outlook and Analyst’s Note

Bottom line

AUD/USD is neutral to slightly positive, back above the 20-day average after three higher closes but just under the 100-day average at 0.7037. A daily close above 0.7050 targets 0.7080; a close below 0.6965 targets 0.6900. With the Fed deciding on 28 October and the RBA on 3 November, expect wider swings into those meetings.

The Aussie has recovered the whole 15 October drop, but every rally since late September has stopped below the 100-day average.

“I would sell a first test of 0.7040 to 0.7050 with a stop above 0.7075, and turn buyer only on a daily close above 0.7050. On a pullback, I would buy 0.6970 to 0.6985 with a stop under 0.6945.”

Tanbir Habib Riyad, Forex & Crypto Analyst, FX Recap

Before You Trade: Checklist and Tools

  • Confirm the bias: Neutral, range 0.6965 to 0.7047. Trade with it unless price closes beyond the levels that cancel it.
  • Mark the key levels on your own chart: resistance 0.7031 · 0.7047 · 0.7080, support 0.7010 · 0.6965 · 0.6900.
  • Note the event times: Fed rate decision (wed 28 oct), Bank of Japan decision (fri 30 oct), RBA rate decision (tue 3 nov). Spreads often widen around Wed 28 Oct UTC.
  • Place the stop loss before you enter, at the level shown on the setup card, and never move it further away.
  • Size the position so a stop-out costs no more than 1% to 2% of your account.
  • Check your own chart and your state of mind with Chart Pre-Flight before you enter.
Position size calculatorLots for your riskPip calculatorValue of each pipRisk-reward calculatorCheck the ratioChart Pre-FlightCheck your own chart

Other markets today

EUR/USD Bearish1.1223 · Bearish below 1.1280; buyers active above 1.1190GBP/USD Bullish1.3397 · Bullish above 1.3310; 50-day average near 1.3413 overheadGold Bearish$4,118 · Bearish below $4,175; twin lows near $4,075USD/JPY Neutral158.13 · Neutral, range 157.50 to 159.04

Disclaimer: this analysis is for educational purposes only and is not financial advice. Forex trading carries a high risk of losing money quickly. Prices quoted are as of 21 October 2026, 10:00 UTC.