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EUR/PLN history and ranges to 2030
Month-end rates for the last 10 years, then the historical range for each year-end to 2030 and the rate-gap path.
See the table →EUR/PLN Forecast 2026–2030
EUR/PLN is the number of zlotys one euro buys. A higher rate means a weaker zloty. It was 4.3843 on 9 November 2026. Below: what 27 years of ECB history and today's interest rates say about where it could be from 2027 to 2030. Ranges, not a price target.
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EUR/PLN outlook in brief
Today4.38439 November 2026 · +3.2% in a year
End of 20274.08 – 4.6468% historical range · middle 4.37
End of 20304.13 – 4.7968% historical range · middle 4.52
Rate-gap path, 20304.61NBP 3.75% vs ECB 2.5%, held
The zloty has lost 3.1% of its value against the euro in the past year and lost 1.3% in ten years, while EUR/PLN itself moved +1.3% over the ten years (+0.1% a year). Since 1999 the euro has gained against the zloty in 71% of stretches as long as today-to-2030. The NBP's rate is 1.25 points above the ECB's, which tilts the rate-gap path higher.
EUR/PLN at each year-end to 2030
Ranges from 27 years of ECB history, the rate-gap path with today's policy rates held.
| Year-end | 95% range | 68% range | Middle | Rate gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 4.19 – 4.62 | 4.27 – 4.49 | 4.38 | 4.39 |
| 2027 | 3.87 – 5.23 | 4.08 – 4.64 | 4.37 | 4.45 |
| 2028 | 3.72 – 5.27 | 3.99 – 4.74 | 4.42 | 4.50 |
| 2029 | 3.68 – 5.23 | 3.99 – 4.82 | 4.46 | 4.55 |
| 2030 | 3.76 – 5.13 | 4.13 – 4.79 | 4.52 | 4.61 |
Starting point 4.3843 (9 November 2026). 6,073 overlapping windows for 2030. Narodowy Bank Polski publishes no survey of exchange rate expectations we could use.
EUR/PLN forecast by month, next 12 months
Month-end ranges from history, and the rate-gap path.
| Month-end | 68% range | Middle | Rate gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 2026 | 4.31 – 4.45 | 4.38 | 4.39 |
| Dec 2026 | 4.27 – 4.49 | 4.38 | 4.39 |
| Jan 2027 | 4.24 – 4.51 | 4.38 | 4.40 |
| Feb 2027 | 4.22 – 4.52 | 4.38 | 4.40 |
| Mar 2027 | 4.20 – 4.54 | 4.38 | 4.41 |
| Apr 2027 | 4.19 – 4.55 | 4.37 | 4.41 |
| May 2027 | 4.17 – 4.56 | 4.37 | 4.41 |
| Jun 2027 | 4.16 – 4.57 | 4.37 | 4.42 |
| Jul 2027 | 4.17 – 4.59 | 4.36 | 4.42 |
| Aug 2027 | 4.14 – 4.61 | 4.37 | 4.43 |
| Sep 2027 | 4.11 – 4.63 | 4.38 | 4.43 |
| Oct 2027 | 4.10 – 4.63 | 4.38 | 4.44 |
Will EUR/PLN reach these levels?
Share of past stretches of the same length in which EUR/PLN, starting from 4.3843, would end at or above each level.
| Level | End of 2027 | End of 2030 |
|---|---|---|
| 3.80 | over 95% | |
| 4.00 | 88% | |
| 4.20 | 73% | |
| 4.40 | 45% | |
| 4.60 | 19% | |
| 4.80 | 11% | |
| 5.00 | 8% |
History, not probability: a crisis or a policy change can take EUR/PLN outside every level here.
4 figures to quote
EUR/PLN was 4.3843 on 9 November 2026, +3.2% on a year earlier, so the zloty weakened against the euro.
Source: ECB euro reference ratesIn 95% of all 6,073 past stretches of the same length since 1999, a move like history's would leave EUR/PLN between 3.76 and 5.13 at the end of 2030; the middle outcome is 4.52.
Source: FX Recap calculation on ECB data since 1999With today's policy rates held to 2030 (NBP 3.75%, ECB 2.5%), the rate-gap path puts EUR/PLN at 4.61 at the end of 2030. That is roughly where forward contracts price the pair, not a prediction.
Source: Narodowy Bank Polski; European Central Bank; FX Recap calculationEUR/PLN's highest ECB reference rate since 1999 was 4.9525 on 7 March 2022; the lowest was 3.2053 on 28 July 2008.
Source: ECB euro reference rates
How to read the three numbers
Historical range
Every stretch of the same length in the ECB's history since 1999, applied to today's 4.3843. Two in three end 2030 between 4.13 and 4.79; nineteen in twenty between 3.76 and 5.13. A crisis or policy change can break the pattern.
Rate-gap path
The Narodowy Bank Polski's reference rate is 3.75% and the European Central Bank's is 2.5%, so the NBP pays 1.25 points more than the ECB. Forward contracts are priced so the extra interest is cancelled by the exchange rate: 4.61 by end-2030 if rates never change, which they will.
No survey
Narodowy Bank Polski does not publish economists' exchange rate expectations, so this page uses only the two calculated measures.
None of these is a signal to buy or sell. A leveraged position can lose more in a day than these ranges move in a month. Our position size calculator shows what a move costs at a given size, and the currency volatility index compares how far the zloty moves each week with other currencies.
EUR/PLN history and records
ECB reference rates. A positive change means the zloty weakened against the euro.
| Year | Year-end | Change |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 so far | 4.3843 | +3.9% |
| 2025 | 4.2210 | −1.3% |
| 2024 | 4.2750 | −1.5% |
| 2023 | 4.3395 | −7.3% |
| 2022 | 4.6808 | +1.8% |
| 2021 | 4.5969 | +0.8% |
| 2020 | 4.5597 | +7.1% |
| 2019 | 4.2568 | −1.0% |
| 2018 | 4.3014 | +3.0% |
| 2017 | 4.1770 | −5.3% |
| 2016 | 4.4103 | +3.4% |
| Highest since 1999 | 4.9525 7 Mar 2022 |
| Lowest since 1999 | 3.2053 28 Jul 2008 |
| Last 5 years | 4.1308 to 4.9525 |
| Up years | 11 of 26 full years |
| Biggest yearly rises | 2003 +16.9% · 2008 +15.6% · 2002 +15.0% |
| Biggest yearly falls | 2004 −13.1% · 2001 −9.2% · 2012 −8.6% |
| Biggest 12-month rise | +36.4% 18 Feb 2008 – 17 Feb 2009 |
| Biggest 12-month fall | −20.8% 1 Mar 2004 – 1 Mar 2005 |
| Biggest one-day moves | +4.25% 22 Oct 2008 · −3.61% 28 Oct 2008 |
| Volatility | 3.6% last 12 months · 8.5% since 1999 |
| 5 and 10 years | −4.6% · +1.3% |
EUR/PLN seasonality: average move by month
Average month-end to month-end change since 1999, and how often EUR/PLN rose in that month. July has been the zloty's best month on average, September its worst.
Jan+0.40%up 41% of years
Feb−0.16%up 43% of years
Mar+0.16%up 43% of years
Apr−0.41%up 43% of years
May+0.16%up 43% of years
Jun+0.49%up 61% of years
Jul−0.72%up 46% of years
Aug+0.68%up 61% of years
Sep+0.95%up 61% of years
Oct−0.39%up 50% of years
Nov−0.33%up 37% of years
Dec−0.32%up 26% of years
Small averages next to normal monthly swings: not a reliable trading pattern.
What could push EUR/PLN up or down
Rate gap with the euro area
The NBP's reference rate is above the ECB's deposit rate, so holding zlotys earns more than holding euros. That gap is what the rate-gap path on this page is built from.
Trade with Germany and the euro area
Most of Poland's exports go to the European Union, so the zloty tends to weaken when euro-area growth slows and recover when it picks up.
EU funds
Large inflows of European Union money have to be converted into zlotys, which supports the currency while they keep coming.
Risk appetite
The zloty is one of the more liquid emerging-market currencies, so it is often sold when investors turn cautious about the region.
| Central bank | Rate | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Narodowy Bank Polski | 3.75% (reference rate) | in force since 5 Mar 2026 |
| European Central Bank | 2.5% (deposit facility rate) | held 29 Oct 2026 |
Next rate decisions are on our economic calendar.
Method
| Rates | ECB euro reference rates, one per working day since 4 January 1999. |
| Ranges | For each target date, the log change over the same number of days from every start day in the history; 5th, 16th, 50th, 84th and 95th percentiles applied to today's rate. |
| Rate gap | Today's rate × ((1 + NBP rate) ÷ (1 + ECB rate)) ^ years. |
| Odds | Share of those windows ending at or above each level. |
| Updates | Monthly, and after each NBP or ECB decision. |
Source: ECB Data Portal, EXR.D.PLN.EUR.SP00.A.
Cite this page
Free to use with a credit and link (CC BY 4.0).
FX Recap, "EUR/PLN forecast 2026–2030", updated 9 November 2026, https://fxrecap.com/forex-news/currency-forecast/eur-pln
Jawad Bin GoniPR & Reporter, FX Recap[email protected]
EUR/PLN forecast: common questions
What will EUR/PLN be in 2030?
Nobody knows, and any single number for 2030 is a guess. What can be measured: if the next four years look like a typical four-year stretch since 1999, EUR/PLN would end 2030 between 4.13 and 4.79 two times in three, and between 3.76 and 5.13 19 times in 20. With today's policy rates held, the rate-gap path ends 2030 at 4.61.
What is the EUR/PLN forecast for 2027?
For the end of 2027 the historical range is 3.87 to 5.23 (95%), with a middle outcome of 4.37, and the rate-gap path is 4.45.
Will EUR/PLN reach 4.80?
In 15% of past stretches the length of today-to-2030, a move like history's would take EUR/PLN to 4.80 or higher by the end of 2030, starting from 4.3843. By the end of 2027 the share is 11% or less. The table "Will it reach these levels?" shows the shares for other round numbers.
Could the zloty get stronger from here?
It can, but on history it is the less common outcome. In 29% of past stretches the length of today-to-2030, EUR/PLN ended lower than it started, which would mean a stronger zloty. EUR/PLN's lowest ECB reference rate since 1999 was 3.2053 on 28 July 2008.
Will the zloty get stronger or weaker?
Over the past 27 years the euro gained against the zloty in 71% of all stretches the length of today-to-2030, on ECB data. Past patterns can break: a change in inflation, interest rates or politics can turn the trend. This page shows ranges, not a direction call.
Why does a higher interest rate in Poland point to a weaker zloty?
Forward prices have to balance the interest earned in each currency. If NBP rates are higher than ECB rates, the forward price of EUR/PLN sits above today's rate, otherwise a trader could borrow one currency, hold the other and lock in a riskless profit. That is why the rate-gap path rises over time. It is a pricing rule, not a forecast: high-yield currencies often hold up better than the path suggests.
Where do these figures come from?
Exchange rates are the ECB's euro reference rates. Policy rates come from the Narodowy Bank Polski and the European Central Bank. The ranges are FX Recap's own calculation, and every figure is in the free CSV.
How volatile is EUR/PLN?
Over the last 12 months EUR/PLN moved with an annualised volatility of 3.6% on daily ECB rates, against 8.5% over the whole history since 1999. Its largest one-day rise was +4.25% on 22 October 2008, and its largest one-day fall −3.61% on 28 October 2008.
Is there a best month for the zloty?
On average since 1999, July has been the zloty's best month against the euro (EUR/PLN −0.72% on average) and September its worst (+0.95%). The averages are small next to normal monthly swings, so they are not a reliable trading pattern.
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Risk warning. Forex and CFD trading carries a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. Historical ranges, rate-gap paths and surveys do not predict future prices. This page is information, not financial advice.