US Retail Sales Rise 0.8% in September, but Gas Stations Do the Heavy Lifting

American shoppers spent more in September, but mostly because fuel cost more. The Census Bureau said on Thursday that retail and food services sales rose 0.8% to $745.0 billion, after a 1.3% gain in August that was revised up from 1.1%. Sales were 6.3% higher than a year earlier.

Strip out the pumps and the picture is much flatter. Sales at gasoline stations rose about 6.4% on the month, by our calculation from the Census tables. Sales excluding motor vehicles and gasoline stations grew only 0.2%, and the Census Bureau notes that this change is not statistically different from zero. Because the figures are not adjusted for prices, and consumer prices rose 0.6% in September, real spending outside fuel probably fell slightly.

Where the money went in September

The Census Bureau's Table 1 shows the spread across store types. We compared the seasonally adjusted September advance estimate for each line with the August figure. Fuel stands out, and restaurants and bars had a decent month, but several store groups sold less than in August.

Source: US Census Bureau, Advance Monthly Retail Trade report, 15 October 2026, Table 1 (adjusted). Percentage changes are FX Recap calculations from the published dollar figures.

General merchandise stores, which include warehouse clubs and supercenters, slipped about 0.1%, and clothing stores were flat. Sporting goods, hobby and book stores fell about 0.5%. Grocery and beverage stores rose 0.4%, roughly in line with food prices. Online retailers grew 0.3% on the month, a slower pace than their 8.2% gain over the year.

Economists often look at a narrower measure that leaves out autos, gasoline, building materials and restaurants, because it feeds directly into the government's estimate of consumer spending in GDP. The Census Bureau does not publish that series, but by our calculation from Table 1 it rose only about 0.1% in September. That is a weak result in a month when prices rose 0.6%.

How reliable the advance estimate is

The advance report is an early read, built from a sample of about 4,800 firms that is weighted to represent more than three million retail and food businesses. The Census Bureau gives each estimate a margin of error. September's 0.8% rise carries a range of plus or minus 0.4%, which makes it statistically significant, but the 0.2% gain excluding autos and gasoline does not clear that bar.

Revisions can be large. August's gain was first reported at 1.1% and now stands at 1.3%, with a much tighter margin of plus or minus 0.1%. Over the third quarter as a whole, sales were 5.5% higher than a year earlier. The Census Bureau also revised its monthly series on 28 September to reflect its annual surveys, so comparisons with older published figures may not line up exactly.

Why fuel is flattering the headline

Gas station sales have risen about 28% from September 2025, by our calculation, matching what the inflation data show. The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported on Wednesday that gasoline prices rose 9.1% in September and 34.2% over the year. On Thursday it said producer-level gasoline prices jumped 20.3% in the month. When fuel costs that much more, households pay more at the pump without buying more fuel, and the receipts show up as higher retail sales.

Excluding motor vehicles and fuel, sales are up 5.0% from a year ago. With consumer inflation at 3.7%, that still leaves some real growth over the year, but the monthly trend has slowed sharply. Restaurant spending held up best: food services and drinking places were about 7.0% higher than a year earlier.

The Federal Reserve's Beige Book, published on 14 October, said much the same in words. Most districts reported little or no change in consumer spending, more than half said spending was driven by high-income households, and some retailers saw lower-income customers being more careful. Our Beige Book story covers the district detail.

What the report means for the dollar

Retail sales landed at 12:30 UTC on Thursday, at the same moment as the much hotter producer price report. That timing makes it hard to separate the effect of each, and you should be wary of any account that claims to. What can be measured is the result: the dollar index rose to about 102.26 in the release hour, then fell below 102 within the hour, and ended the UTC day near 102.05, slightly lower than it started. US Treasury data show the 10-year yield fell to 5.10% from 5.19%.

Our reading is that soft spending outside fuel gave bond buyers a reason to look past the inflation numbers. If high fuel prices are squeezing households, demand may slow on its own, and the Fed may need to do less. That idea weighs on the dollar, because the currency's strength this year has rested on the gap between US yields and those elsewhere. One month of data does not make a trend, though, and the August figure was revised up, not down.

For EUR/USD, which closed Thursday at 1.1216 and traded near 1.1221 early on Friday, the next test is the Fed decision on 28 October. For USD/JPY, near 157.97, falling US yields are a headwind, although the pair has held above 157.50 all week.

How traders can use this report

Retail sales is one of the most-watched US releases, but the headline alone can mislead in a month like this. A few habits help.

• Read the line that excludes autos and gasoline before you react. In September it told a different story from the 0.8% headline.
• Compare sales growth with the CPI for the same month. Retail figures are in dollars, not volumes, so high inflation inflates them.
• Expect two releases at once to produce messy price action. On Thursday, PPI and retail sales came out together, and the first move reversed within an hour.
• Note the next date: October retail sales are due on 17 November, according to the Census Bureau. Add it to your economic calendar.
• Keep each trade small with the position size calculator; a 1% to 2% risk limit protects you from release-day whipsaws.

For today's levels, see our daily EUR/USD analysis and USD/JPY analysis. The producer price report from the same morning is covered in our PPI story.

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Sources: US Census Bureau: Advance Monthly Retail Trade report, September 2026 · US Bureau of Labor Statistics: Consumer Price Index, September 2026 · US Treasury: daily par yield curve rates · Federal Reserve: Beige Book, October 2026