Forex Week in Review: USD/JPY Climbs to 160.00 and EUR/USD Falls to 1.1052 as the Dollar Gains on Every Major

The US dollar rose across the board this week. On the European Central Bank's reference rates, it rose against all six major currencies between Friday 6 November and Friday 13 November. USD/JPY, derived from the ECB's euro rates, reached 160.00 on Friday, its highest since 1 September. EUR/USD fell to 1.1052, the lowest reference rate since 9 April 2025.

The driver was US inflation. Consumer prices rose 0.4% in October with core prices up 0.3% for a third month, and producer prices showed core pressure of 0.5%. Treasury yields climbed through the week, and the 2-year yield, the one most tied to Federal Reserve expectations, rose from 4.51% to 4.88%.

The dollar against each major

Measured from the 6 November reference rates to the 13 November ones, the dollar gained 2.38% against the Swiss franc, its biggest move. It rose 1.36% against the Canadian dollar, 1.27% against the Australian dollar and 1.19% against the pound. Against the yen it gained 1.05% and against the euro 1.02%.

Several pairs closed the week at levels not seen for months. USD/CHF was at its highest since 13 May 2025 and AUD/USD at its lowest since 21 January. GBP/USD, at 1.3227, was the lowest since 9 October, and USD/CAD the highest since 12 October. EUR/USD fell on each of the last three days of the week: 1.1127 on Wednesday, 1.1081 on Thursday and 1.1052 on Friday.

A reminder on method: the ECB publishes one set of euro rates each working day at about 13:15 UTC. Pairs without the euro are crosses we calculate from them, such as USD/JPY as EUR/JPY divided by EUR/USD. They are good for comparing days, but they are not highs or lows.

How the week unfolded

Monday and Tuesday were calm for the euro, with the reference rate at 1.1193 and then 1.1214. Tuesday's rate was set before the Bureau of Labor Statistics published consumer prices at 13:30 UTC. The data showed the third 0.3% core rise in a row, and the 2-year Treasury yield closed at 4.73%, up from 4.56% on Monday, while the 10-year climbed to 4.98%. Our CPI report has the detail.

Wednesday was a US holiday, so the Treasury published no yields, but the ECB fixing captured the CPI reaction: the euro fell to 1.1127 and the dollar rose against all six currencies. On Thursday, Britain's Office for National Statistics reported that GDP grew 0.7% in the third quarter, but the pound still slipped against the dollar as US yields kept rising, with the 2-year at 4.86%.

On Friday the BLS reported that producer prices rose 0.3% in October, with the core measure up 0.5% and the annual rate at 6.5%, the highest since November 2022. The 2-year yield closed at 4.88%, its highest since 30 September, and the 10-year at 5.15%, its highest since 19 October. See our PPI story for the breakdown.

The yen is back at 160

USD/JPY needs a careful look. On the ECB-derived measure it rose every day from Monday's 157.95 and reached 160.00 on Friday. It was last higher on 1 September, at 160.16. The pair's 14-day relative strength index (RSI) on reference rates is 66.6, firm but below the 70 level traders often treat as stretched.

This is close to where Japan last acted. Japan's Ministry of Finance reports ¥15,399.3 billion of foreign exchange intervention between 30 July and 26 August, and none in the reporting periods from 27 August to 28 October. On the same ECB-derived measure, USD/JPY peaked at 163.91 on 28 July and was 160.24 on 31 July. Its next monthly report is due around the end of November.

The Bank of Japan holds its policy rate at 1.25% after an 8-1 vote on 30 October, and meets next on 18 December. With US 10-year yields above 5%, the gap with Japanese rates remains wide, which keeps the carry trade attractive and the yen under pressure until either side changes course or officials step in.

Gold falls almost 4%

Gold fell as yields and the dollar rose. Spot gold was $3,887.60 at 08:47 UTC on Saturday 14 November, according to gold-api.com, down 3.9% from $4,045.50 on 6 November and 6.1% below the $4,138.40 reading of 5 November. It is now just above the $3,876.40 low in our log from 31 October.

The 10-year real yield, which strips out expected inflation, rose from 2.63% on 6 November to 2.86% on 12 November on Treasury data. That raises the cost of holding gold, which pays nothing. Our gold analysis tracks the levels.

The week ahead

Britain is the focus early in the week. The ONS publishes labour market figures on Tuesday 17 November and October consumer prices on Wednesday 18 November, both at 07:00 UK time, according to its release calendar. The Bank of England raised Bank Rate to 4% on 5 November and meets next on 17 December, so pay growth and services inflation will shape the pound.

In the US, the Fed says the minutes of each meeting come out three weeks after the decision, which points to Wednesday 18 November for the 27-28 October meeting. Two officials voted for a rise at that meeting, so markets will read the minutes for how many others leaned that way. The next Fed decision is on 9 December.

For the yen, there is no scheduled trigger, which is part of the risk: intervention comes without notice. Watch official comments from Tokyo and the daily ECB fixing, and remember that Japan's ministry reports its activity only after the fact.

What it means for traders

• Treat the 2-year Treasury yield as the main signal. It drove the dollar's gains this week, and a turn lower would be the first sign of a pullback.
• Respect 160 in USD/JPY. Long positions near a level where Japan has acted before carry the risk of a fast, large drop.
• Look at crosses for UK news. EUR/GBP shows the reaction to UK data more cleanly than GBP/USD when the dollar is this strong.
• Keep position sizes small around the Tuesday and Wednesday 07:00 UK releases and the Fed minutes.
• Our USD/JPY analysis and EUR/USD analysis show the live price and the levels we track.

Frequently asked

Sources: European Central Bank: euro foreign exchange reference rates · US Treasury: daily par yield curve rates, November 2026 · Japan Ministry of Finance: intervention operations, 29 September to 28 October 2026 · Office for National Statistics: release calendar · Federal Reserve: FOMC meeting calendars and minutes · US Bureau of Labor Statistics: Producer Price Index, October 2026 · gold-api.com: spot gold price