GBP/USD Technical Analysis Today

GBPUSD has staged a strong recovery on the 15-minute chart after an extended decline. Price first swept liquidity below the 1.13050 low, formed equal lows around 1.13140, and then climbed steadily toward 1.13372.

Although the latest move looks bullish, the overall structure has not changed. The decline from 1.13950 broke several key support levels and left behind unfilled Fair Value Gaps and bearish Order Blocks. Those areas, especially between 1.13450 and 1.13770, could attract sellers if price continues higher.

Today’s High-Impact Economic News & Volatility

Time (UTC)	Event	Forecast	Previous	Expected Market Impact
08:30	UK S&P Global Flash Manufacturing PMI	52.1	52.5	Moderate GBP Volatility
13:45	US S&P Global Flash Manufacturing PMI	54.3	53.9	High USD Volatility

Today’s PMI releases could decide whether GBPUSD extends its recovery or resumes the broader downtrend.

A weaker-than-expected US PMI may allow buyers to push price toward the 1.13680-1.13770 supply area. Stronger US data, however, could strengthen the US dollar and trigger selling from the 1.13450 resistance zone.

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Market Structure Analysis

The 15-minute chart still reflects a bearish market structure despite the recent rebound.

The sell-off from 1.13950 confirmed a Change of Character (CHoCH) before breaking below previous support. The latest rally started after price cleared liquidity below 1.13050 and swept the Equal Highs near 1.13240, forcing short-term sellers out of the market.

Momentum indicators suggest that the recovery may be losing strength. Stoch RSI is reading 75.13, while SqSmoothedRSI is at 80.58, both indicating overbought conditions. Buying volume increased during the rally, but price is now approaching the 1.13450 equilibrium area, where previous selling pressure entered the market.

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Today’s Trading Plan

Metric	Level
Market Bias	Bearish
Entry Zone	1.13450-1.13550
Stop Loss	1.13680
Take Profit 1	1.13140
Take Profit 2	1.13050
Risk-to-Reward	1:2.3
Expected Holding Time	2-5 Hours

Instead of selling immediately, wait for price to reach the 1.13450-1.13550 supply area. A bearish Change of Character on the 5-minute chart or a clear rejection candle would provide stronger confirmation before entering a short trade.

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Price Outlook

The overall outlook remains bearish while price stays below 1.13680.

If sellers defend the 1.13450-1.13680 supply zone, GBPUSD could move back toward 1.13140 before retesting the 1.13050 liquidity low.

A 15-minute close above 1.13680 would weaken this bearish setup. In that case, price may continue toward 1.13860, with 1.13950 becoming the next resistance level.

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Key Price Levels

Level	Price	Reason
Resistance 2	1.13950	Bearish Order Block & Previous Swing High
Resistance 1	1.13680	Major Supply Zone
Pivot	1.13450	Equilibrium & Fair Value Gap
Support 1	1.13140	Equal Lows Liquidity
Support 2	1.13050	Previous Swing Low

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Conclusion

GBPUSD is recovering from its recent decline, but the broader intraday structure still favors sellers. The 1.13450-1.13550 area remains the key zone to watch. If bearish confirmation appears there, it could offer a short opportunity in line with the existing market structure.

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Expert Comment

The recent rally has pushed momentum indicators into overbought territory, but that alone is not a sell signal. Let price reach the supply zone first, then wait for clear bearish confirmation before considering a short position.d does not constitute financial advice.