GBPUSD Technical Analysis: Sellers Stay in Control After Fed-Driven Crash
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GBP/USD trades near 1.3394 at 06:30 UTC on Friday, 10 pips below Thursday's 1.3404 close. Thursday pushed to 1.3418, the best level since 16 September, dipped to 1.3356 and still closed 9 pips higher, the fifth higher close in seven days. This morning's UK retail sales showed a 0.4% fall in September volumes, and the pound barely moved, holding near 1.3390. Price is above the 20-day (1.3269) and 100-day (1.3389) averages and sits on the 50-day (1.3409). The 14-day RSI is about 59.

GBP/USD at a Glance

GBP/USD · British Pound / US Dollar
1.3394−10 pips (−0.07%)
23 October 2026, 06:30 UTC · change vs previous close
Today's biasBullish
BearishNeutralBullish
Bullish above 1.3355; 50-day average near 1.3409 overhead
Today's range1.3387 to 1.340821 pips so far
RSI (14-day)59 · Neutral zone
3070
Moving averages
20-day1.3269 ▲
50-day1.3409 ▼
100-day1.3389 ▲
Price above 2 of 3
20-day range1.3139 to 1.3418
LowHigh

1New high at 1.3418 on Thursday, the best since 16 September.

2Weak UK retail sales barely moved the pound this morning.

3Still wrapped around the 50-day average (1.3409).

Analysis, not financial advice. Check live quotes before trading.

GBP/USD Live Chart and Technical Meter

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GBP/USD technical meter

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Key Support and Resistance Levels

Distance is measured from the price at 06:30 UTC.

R 31.3495+101 pips16 September high, before the post-Fed sell-off
R 21.3470+76 pips14 and 15 September lows, now resistance
R 11.3420+26 pipsThursday's high (1.3418), just above the 50-day average (1.3409)
Now1.3394CurrentPrice at the time of writing
S 11.3385−9 pipsToday's low (1.3387) and the 100-day average (1.3389)
S 21.3355−39 pipsThursday's low (1.3356) and Wednesday's post-CPI low (1.3366)
S 31.3310−84 pipsOld range top; Tuesday's low was 1.3311

GBP/USD Trading Plan Today

Three setups for the next session: buy a pullback to the 1.3385 to 1.3395 zone, buy a confirmed close above 1.3425, or sell a close back below 1.3350 if the move fails. With retail sales out of the way, the US dollar and Treasury yields are the main drivers into the weekend.

Buy

Buy the pullback

Entry
1.3385–1.3395
Stop
1.3350
TP 1
1.3440
TP 2
1.3470
Risk : reward1:1.3–2.0
Possible gain45–85 pips
Buy

Buy the breakout

Entry
Above 1.3425 (close)
Stop
1.3390
TP 1
1.3470
TP 2
1.3495
Risk : reward1:1.3–2.0
Possible gain45–70 pips
Sell

Sell a failed breakout

Entry
Below 1.3350 (close)
Stop
1.3390
TP 1
1.3310
TP 2
1.3270
Risk : reward1:1.0–2.0
Possible gain40–80 pips

Friday afternoons can be thin, and positions are often squared before the weekend. Keep each trade's risk to 1% to 2% of your account with the position size calculator.

Show the setups as a table
Market BiasEntry ZoneStop LossTake Profit 1Take Profit 2Risk RewardPossible Gain (pips)
Bullish1.3385–1.33951.33501.34401.34701:1.3–2.045–85
BullishAbove 1.3425 (close)1.33901.34701.34951:1.3–2.045–70
BearishBelow 1.3350 (close)1.33901.33101.32701:1.0–2.040–80

GBP/USD Price Outlook: Bull and Bear Cases

Bullish scenario

UK inflation at 3.5% makes a Bank of England cut on 5 November hard to argue for, and the retail data did little to change that. A daily close above 1.3425 would target 1.3470, then the 16 September high at 1.3495. Beyond 1.3495 lies the 1.3550 area, where the pair traded in early September.

Bearish scenario

If the dollar firms, the pair could slip back to 1.3355 and the old 1.3310 ceiling. Any daily close under 1.3305 would point to 1.3270 and would mean the breakout had failed.

GBP/USD Market Structure and Indicators

20-day average1.3269Price above by 125 pips
50-day average1.3409Price below by 15 pips
100-day average1.3389Price above by 5 pips
14-day RSI59Between 30 and 70

GBP/USD made lower highs from late August, falling from about 1.3675 on 21 August to 1.3181 on 1 October, and then traded sideways for two weeks. The 16 October close at 1.3330 broke that range, Monday's dip to 1.3296 was bought, and the pair has since made higher highs at 1.3409 and now 1.3418. Price is above the 20-day (1.3269) and 100-day (1.3389) averages and is wrapped around the 50-day at 1.3409, where the bigger downtrend will be decided.

The sequence still favours buyers: a false break to 1.3139 on US CPI day, a breakout on 16 October, a retest of the old 1.3310 ceiling on Monday, a new high on Tuesday, a higher low at 1.3366 on Wednesday and a fresh high on Thursday. Thursday's dip to 1.3356 was bought quickly. A daily close above 1.3425 would put price clearly above all three averages and open 1.3470 to 1.3495, while a close under 1.3350 would weaken the breakout. See our market structure guide for how we read these swings.

Last 7 Days Recap

1.34181.32791.3139Wed14 OctThu15 OctFri16 OctMon19 OctTue20 OctWed21 OctThu22 Oct

GBP/USD gained 146 pips over the last seven trading days, from 1.3258 to 1.3404, with five higher closes and two lower ones. The pair swung 136 pips from high to low on US CPI day before closing 27 pips lower at 1.3231. Thursday 15 October added 40 pips and Friday 59 to 1.3330. Monday gave back 20 pips, Tuesday's 63-pip gain was the largest of the period, Wednesday's UK inflation data added 22 pips, and Thursday added 9 more to close at 1.3404.

DateOpenHighLowCloseChange
Wed 14 Oct1.32571.32751.31391.3231−27 pips (−0.20%)
Thu 15 Oct1.32341.32791.32241.3271+40 pips (+0.30%)
Fri 16 Oct1.32701.33711.32691.3330+59 pips (+0.44%)
Mon 19 Oct1.33391.33421.32961.3310−20 pips (−0.15%)
Tue 20 Oct1.33111.34091.33111.3373+63 pips (+0.47%)
Wed 21 Oct1.33721.34031.33661.3395+22 pips (+0.16%)
Thu 22 Oct1.33951.34181.33561.3404+9 pips (+0.07%)
7-day total1.32571.34181.31391.3404+146 pips (+1.10%)
Last 7 trading days. UTC daily candles built from hourly market data, weekend trading left out. Change is close to close.

Today’s Economic Calendar and News

  • UK retail sales -0.4% in SeptemberMedium impact
  • Fed rate decisionHigh impact
  • Bank of England decisionHigh impact

Overnight, Japan's Statistics Bureau said core inflation rose to 2.1% in September from 1.7%, and the ONS said UK retail sales volumes fell 0.4% in September after a revised 0.7% rise in August. On Thursday the US 10-year Treasury yield fell to 4.96% from 5.13% on the Treasury's par curve, its biggest one-day drop since August 2024, after a sell-off in technology shares reported by news outlets. The dollar index ended Thursday near 101.57 and traded about 101.67 at 06:30 UTC. Next up is the Fed decision on 28 October. For GBP/USD, this morning's ONS data showed retail volumes down 0.4% in September but up 0.7% over the quarter; our UK retail sales story covers the details, and the UK inflation story Wednesday's 3.5% CPI. The Bank of England decides on 5 November.

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Geopolitical Factors and Market Impact

Energy is the main outside force on the pound. Petrol and diesel drove UK inflation to 3.5% in September, according to the ONS, and Brent crude futures traded near $114.50 at 06:30 UTC on Friday. Higher energy costs lift inflation but weigh on spending, which the retail data hinted at, and that leaves the Bank of England with a hard choice and keeps sterling sensitive to every oil swing.

Final Outlook and Analyst’s Note

Bottom line

GBP/USD made a new high on Thursday and absorbed weak retail sales without a fuss. The bias is bullish above 1.3355: buy dips towards 1.3385 to 1.3395, buy a close above 1.3425, and treat a close back under 1.3350 as a sign the move is fading.

Soft retail sales and the pound did not even flinch. That tells me buyers are in control of the dips, even if the 50-day average is still slowing the advance.

“I would buy a dip to 1.3385 to 1.3395 with a stop under 1.3350, aiming for 1.3440 first and 1.3470 on a close above 1.3425.”

Tanbir Habib Riyad, Forex & Crypto Analyst, FX Recap

Before You Trade: Checklist and Tools

  • Confirm the bias: Bullish above 1.3355; 50-day average near 1.3409 overhead. Trade with it unless price closes beyond the levels that cancel it.
  • Mark the key levels on your own chart: resistance 1.3420 · 1.3470 · 1.3495, support 1.3385 · 1.3355 · 1.3310.
  • Note the event times: UK retail sales -0.4% in September (fri (done)), Fed rate decision (wed 28 oct), Bank of England decision (thu 5 nov). Spreads often widen around Fri (done) UTC.
  • Place the stop loss before you enter, at the level shown on the setup card, and never move it further away.
  • Size the position so a stop-out costs no more than 1% to 2% of your account.
  • Check your own chart and your state of mind with Chart Pre-Flight before you enter.
Position size calculatorLots for your riskPip calculatorValue of each pipRisk-reward calculatorCheck the ratioChart Pre-FlightCheck your own chart

Other markets today

EUR/USD Bearish1.1218 · Bearish below 1.1260; range floor at 1.1190Gold Bearish$4,016 · Bearish below $4,075; testing $4,000USD/JPY Bearish156.91 · Bearish below 157.60; range floor brokenAUD/USD Neutral0.7022 · Neutral, range 0.6965 to 0.7045

Disclaimer: this analysis is for educational purposes only and is not financial advice. Forex trading carries a high risk of losing money quickly. Prices quoted are as of 23 October 2026, 06:30 UTC.

Read More

For traders working through today’s GBPUSD Technical Analysis, these FXRecap resources cover the concepts used above:

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Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute personalized financial advice. Trading involves risk of loss.nk Ratealized financial advice. Trading involves risk; always conduct independent research.

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