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USD/BRL history and ranges to 2030
Month-end rates for the last 10 years, then the historical range for each year-end to 2030 and the rate-gap path, with the survey figures.
See the table →USD/BRL Forecast 2026–2030
USD/BRL is the number of reais one US dollar buys. A higher rate means a weaker real. It was 5.5167 on 9 November 2026. Below: what 18 years of ECB history, today's interest rates and the official survey of economists say about where it could be from 2027 to 2030. Ranges, not a price target.
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USD/BRL outlook in brief
Today5.51679 November 2026 · +2.9% in a year
End of 20275.03 – 6.9268% historical range · middle 5.84
End of 20305.76 – 9.3568% historical range · middle 7.46
Economists5.51median, 2030 · Banco Central do Brasil
The real has lost 2.8% of its value against the US dollar in the past year and lost 41.9% in ten years, while USD/BRL itself moved +72.2% over the ten years (+5.6% a year). Since 2008 the US dollar has gained against the real in 90% of stretches as long as today-to-2030. The BCB's rate is 9.88 points above the Fed's, which tilts the rate-gap path higher.
USD/BRL at each year-end to 2030
Ranges from 18 years of ECB history, the rate-gap path with today's policy rates held, and the median from the Banco Central do Brasil, Focus market survey.
| Year-end | 95% range | 68% range | Middle | Rate gap | Survey |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 5.09 – 6.14 | 5.28 – 5.85 | 5.54 | 5.59 | 5.35 |
| 2027 | 4.63 – 7.78 | 5.03 – 6.92 | 5.84 | 6.12 | 5.40 |
| 2028 | 4.52 – 8.75 | 5.21 – 7.77 | 6.25 | 6.70 | 5.45 |
| 2029 | 4.98 – 9.92 | 5.37 – 8.68 | 6.91 | 7.34 | 5.50 |
| 2030 | 5.30 – 11.30 | 5.76 – 9.35 | 7.46 | 8.04 | 5.51 |
Starting point 5.5167 (9 November 2026). 3,769 overlapping windows for 2030.
USD/BRL forecast by month, next 12 months
Month-end ranges from history, and the rate-gap path.
| Month-end | 68% range | Middle | Rate gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 2026 | 5.36 – 5.71 | 5.52 | 5.55 |
| Dec 2026 | 5.28 – 5.85 | 5.54 | 5.59 |
| Jan 2027 | 5.25 – 5.96 | 5.53 | 5.63 |
| Feb 2027 | 5.21 – 6.10 | 5.54 | 5.67 |
| Mar 2027 | 5.17 – 6.20 | 5.58 | 5.72 |
| Apr 2027 | 5.17 – 6.30 | 5.58 | 5.76 |
| May 2027 | 5.15 – 6.41 | 5.58 | 5.80 |
| Jun 2027 | 5.13 – 6.49 | 5.62 | 5.85 |
| Jul 2027 | 5.10 – 6.61 | 5.63 | 5.89 |
| Aug 2027 | 5.09 – 6.72 | 5.69 | 5.94 |
| Sep 2027 | 5.08 – 6.77 | 5.74 | 5.98 |
| Oct 2027 | 5.06 – 6.83 | 5.77 | 6.03 |
Will USD/BRL reach these levels?
Share of past stretches of the same length in which USD/BRL, starting from 5.5167, would end at or above each level.
| Level | End of 2027 | End of 2030 |
|---|---|---|
| 6.00 | 45% | |
| 7.00 | 15% | |
| 8.00 | under 5% | |
| 9.00 | under 5% | |
| 10.0 | under 5% | |
| 11.0 | under 5% |
History, not probability: a crisis or a policy change can take USD/BRL outside every level here.
5 figures to quote
USD/BRL was 5.5167 on 9 November 2026, +2.9% on a year earlier, so the real weakened against the US dollar.
Source: ECB euro reference ratesIn 95% of all 3,769 past stretches of the same length since 2008, a move like history's would leave USD/BRL between 5.30 and 11.30 at the end of 2030; the middle outcome is 7.46.
Source: FX Recap calculation on ECB data since 2008With today's policy rates held to 2030 (BCB 13.75%, Fed 3.875%), the rate-gap path puts USD/BRL at 8.04 at the end of 2030. That is roughly where forward contracts price the pair, not a prediction.
Source: Banco Central do Brasil; US Federal Reserve; FX Recap calculationEconomists in the Banco Central do Brasil, Focus market survey expect end-of-year USD/BRL of 5.35 (2026), 5.40 (2027), 5.45 (2028), 5.50 (2029), 5.51 (2030) (median, 88 to 122 economists).
Source: Banco Central do Brasil, Focus market survey, 6 November 2026USD/BRL's highest ECB reference rate since 2008 was 6.2852 on 19 December 2024; the lowest was 1.5347 on 26 July 2011.
Source: ECB euro reference rates
How to read the three numbers
Historical range
Every stretch of the same length in the ECB's history since 2008, applied to today's 5.5167. Two in three end 2030 between 5.76 and 9.35; nineteen in twenty between 5.30 and 11.30. A crisis or policy change can break the pattern.
Rate-gap path
The Banco Central do Brasil's Selic target is 13.75% and the US Federal Reserve's is 3.875%, so the BCB pays 9.88 points more than the Fed. Forward contracts are priced so the extra interest is cancelled by the exchange rate: 8.04 by end-2030 if rates never change, which they will.
Survey
The Banco Central do Brasil, Focus market survey (6 November 2026) asked 88 to 122 economists for their end-of-year USD/BRL. Surveys move with the latest rate, so read them as a snapshot of opinion.
None of these is a signal to buy or sell. A leveraged position can lose more in a day than these ranges move in a month. Our position size calculator shows what a move costs at a given size, and the currency volatility index compares how far the real moves each week with other currencies.
USD/BRL history and records
ECB reference rates. A positive change means the real weakened against the US dollar.
| Year | Year-end | Change |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 so far | 5.5167 | +0.7% |
| 2025 | 5.4778 | −11.4% |
| 2024 | 6.1847 | +27.5% |
| 2023 | 4.8523 | −8.2% |
| 2022 | 5.2865 | −5.1% |
| 2021 | 5.5713 | +7.3% |
| 2020 | 5.1940 | +29.2% |
| 2019 | 4.0197 | +3.6% |
| 2018 | 3.8812 | +17.2% |
| 2017 | 3.3127 | +1.8% |
| 2016 | 3.2544 | −17.8% |
| Highest since 2008 | 6.2852 19 Dec 2024 |
| Lowest since 2008 | 1.5347 26 Jul 2011 |
| Last 5 years | 4.5933 to 6.2852 |
| Up years | 11 of 17 full years |
| Biggest yearly rises | 2015 +49.3% · 2020 +29.2% · 2024 +27.5% |
| Biggest yearly falls | 2009 −25.2% · 2016 −17.8% · 2025 −11.4% |
| Biggest 12-month rise | +75.0% 24 Sep 2014 – 24 Sep 2015 |
| Biggest 12-month fall | −32.9% 5 Dec 2008 – 4 Dec 2009 |
| Biggest one-day moves | +12.05% 8 Oct 2008 · −8.02% 9 Oct 2008 |
| Volatility | 15.2% last 12 months · 16.6% since 2008 |
| 5 and 10 years | −1.2% · +72.2% |
USD/BRL seasonality: average move by month
Average month-end to month-end change since 2008, and how often USD/BRL rose in that month. April has been the real's best month on average, August its worst.
Jan−0.83%up 44% of years
Feb+0.07%up 42% of years
Mar+1.36%up 58% of years
Apr−1.36%up 37% of years
May+1.35%up 68% of years
Jun−0.36%up 42% of years
Jul−0.25%up 42% of years
Aug+2.51%up 74% of years
Sep+2.46%up 63% of years
Oct−0.02%up 58% of years
Nov+2.40%up 61% of years
Dec−0.17%up 44% of years
Small averages next to normal monthly swings: not a reliable trading pattern.
What could push USD/BRL up or down
The Selic rate
At 13.75%, Brazil's Selic is one of the highest policy rates among large economies, which attracts carry-trade money into reais.
Commodity prices
Brazil is a major exporter of soybeans, iron ore, oil and coffee, so the real tends to strengthen when those prices rise.
Public finances
Worries about government debt and spending have caused some of the real's sharpest falls, because they raise the risk of higher inflation later.
Politics
Elections and budget fights move the real more than most currencies, and the largest weekly swing in our currency volatility index was Brazil's, after the October 2026 runoff.
| Central bank | Rate | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Banco Central do Brasil | 13.75% (Selic target) | BCB series 432, Nov 2026 |
| US Federal Reserve | 3.875% (federal funds target range 3.75%–4.00% (midpoint used)) | held 28 Oct 2026 |
Next rate decisions are on our economic calendar.
Method
| Rates | ECB euro reference rates, one per working day since 2 January 2008, crossed to the US dollar (EUR/BRL ÷ EUR/USD). |
| Ranges | For each target date, the log change over the same number of days from every start day in the history; 5th, 16th, 50th, 84th and 95th percentiles applied to today's rate. |
| Rate gap | Today's rate × ((1 + BCB rate) ÷ (1 + Fed rate)) ^ years. |
| Odds | Share of those windows ending at or above each level. |
| Updates | Monthly, and after each BCB or Fed decision. |
Source: ECB Data Portal, EXR.D.BRL.EUR.SP00.A and EXR.D.USD.EUR.SP00.A.
Cite this page
Free to use with a credit and link (CC BY 4.0).
FX Recap, "USD/BRL forecast 2026–2030", updated 9 November 2026, https://fxrecap.com/forex-news/currency-forecast/usd-brl
Jawad Bin GoniPR & Reporter, FX Recap[email protected]
USD/BRL forecast: common questions
What will USD/BRL be in 2030?
Nobody knows, and any single number for 2030 is a guess. What can be measured: if the next four years look like a typical four-year stretch since 2008, USD/BRL would end 2030 between 5.76 and 9.35 two times in three, and between 5.30 and 11.30 19 times in 20. With today's policy rates held, the rate-gap path ends 2030 at 8.04. The median economist in the Banco Central do Brasil, Focus market survey expects 5.5075.
What is the USD/BRL forecast for 2027?
For the end of 2027 the historical range is 4.63 to 7.78 (95%), with a middle outcome of 5.84, and the rate-gap path is 6.12. The Banco Central do Brasil, Focus market survey median is 5.4000.
Will USD/BRL reach 9.00?
In 21% of past stretches the length of today-to-2030, a move like history's would take USD/BRL to 9.00 or higher by the end of 2030, starting from 5.5167. By the end of 2027 the share is 0% or less. The table "Will it reach these levels?" shows the shares for other round numbers.
Could the real get stronger from here?
It can, but on history it is the less common outcome. In 10% of past stretches the length of today-to-2030, USD/BRL ended lower than it started, which would mean a stronger real. USD/BRL's lowest ECB reference rate since 2008 was 1.5347 on 26 July 2011.
Will the real get stronger or weaker?
Over the past 18 years the US dollar gained against the real in 90% of all stretches the length of today-to-2030, on ECB data. Past patterns can break: a change in inflation, interest rates or politics can turn the trend. This page shows ranges, not a direction call.
Why does a higher interest rate in Brazil point to a weaker real?
Forward prices have to balance the interest earned in each currency. If BCB rates are higher than Fed rates, the forward price of USD/BRL sits above today's rate, otherwise a trader could borrow one currency, hold the other and lock in a riskless profit. That is why the rate-gap path rises over time. It is a pricing rule, not a forecast: high-yield currencies often hold up better than the path suggests.
Where do these figures come from?
Exchange rates are the ECB's euro reference rates, crossed to the US dollar (EUR/BRL ÷ EUR/USD). Policy rates come from the Banco Central do Brasil and the US Federal Reserve. Survey figures come from the Banco Central do Brasil, Focus market survey. The ranges are FX Recap's own calculation, and every figure is in the free CSV.
How volatile is USD/BRL?
Over the last 12 months USD/BRL moved with an annualised volatility of 15.2% on daily ECB rates, against 16.6% over the whole history since 2008. Its largest one-day rise was +12.05% on 8 October 2008, and its largest one-day fall −8.02% on 9 October 2008.
Is there a best month for the real?
On average since 2008, April has been the real's best month against the US dollar (USD/BRL −1.36% on average) and August its worst (+2.51%). The averages are small next to normal monthly swings, so they are not a reliable trading pattern.
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Risk warning. Forex and CFD trading carries a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. Historical ranges, rate-gap paths and surveys do not predict future prices. This page is information, not financial advice.