IC Markets
EUR/USD Price Prediction Chart
The EURUSD currency pair exhibits a strong corrective impulse lower on the hourly chart. Sellers remain in control as price consistently sweeps internal liquidity pools.
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EUR/USD live chart
Euro / US Dollar, real-time priceEUR/USD technical meter
Live buy/sell summary of moving averages and oscillatorsEUR/USD 30-day forecast range
Based on how much EUR/USD has moved over the last 60 trading days, there is roughly a two-in-three chance that EUR/USD trades between 1.1116 and 1.1412 over the next 30 days, about 1.3% either side of today’s 1.1263. Widen that to 1.0977 to 1.1557 for a 95% range.
Forecast range by horizon
| Horizon | Bearish (68% low) | Base | Bullish (68% high) | 95% range |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 week | 1.1191 | 1.1263 | 1.1335 | 1.1122 to 1.1405 |
| 1 month | 1.1116 | 1.1263 | 1.1412 | 1.0977 to 1.1557 |
| 3 months | 1.1010 | 1.1263 | 1.1522 | 1.0772 to 1.1777 |
How we work this out: the range uses EUR/USD’s daily price swings over the last 60 trading days and assumes no particular direction, so the base case is today’s price. It tells you how far the market normally travels, not where it will go. A central bank surprise or a shock headline can push price outside even the 95% band. Updated 6 October 2026.
EUR/USD technical levels and performance
EUR/USD trades below all three of its 20, 50 and 200-day moving averages, with a 14-day RSI of 18 (oversold). Over the past 30 days it has ranged from 1.1166 to 1.1656.
Performance
Levels and performance use daily closes up to 6 October 2026. The live chart and meter above update in real time.
What moves EUR/USD
EUR/USD is the most traded market on the planet, the price of the world’s two biggest currencies against each other. That makes it the pair most new traders start with, and the one where understanding the drivers pays off fastest.
ECB hawkish → EUR/USD up
Strong EU data → EUR/USD up
Calm returns → EUR/USD up
Energy relief → EUR/USD up
The central banks behind EUR/USD
EUR/USD is a straight read on the policy gap between two central banks. Knowing what each one is trying to do, and who's currently running it, explains a lot of what shows up on the chart.
European Central Bank (ECB)
The European Central Bank sets monetary policy for the 20 countries that use the euro, and has done since it opened its doors in Frankfurt in June 1998. Its mandate is narrower than the Fed's: price stability alone, defined as 2% inflation over the medium term, decided by its Governing Council at eight meetings a year. Setting one policy for economies as different as Germany's and Greece's is the ECB's constant balancing act, and it's a big part of why its decisions can be harder to read than a single-country central bank's.
Christine Lagarde has led the ECB since November 2019 and has said she plans to serve her term through to October 2027 rather than step down early. A lawyer by training, she spent a decade running the International Monetary Fund before taking the ECB job, and before that served as France's finance minister, a background that gives her a rare mix of legal, institutional and national-government experience at the top of European monetary policy.
Federal Reserve (Fed)
The Federal Reserve is the central bank of the United States, created by the Federal Reserve Act of 1913. It answers to a dual mandate set by Congress: keep inflation stable, which it defines as 2% over time, and support maximum sustainable employment. The Federal Open Market Committee sets the target range for the federal funds rate at eight scheduled meetings a year, and because so much of world trade and reserve holdings are priced in dollars, that single decision moves markets well beyond America's own borders.
Kevin Warsh has chaired the Fed since May 2026, after the Senate confirmed him for a four-year term running to May 2030. Born in Albany, New York, in April 1970, he trained as a lawyer at Harvard and worked in mergers and acquisitions at Morgan Stanley before George W. Bush brought him into the White House as a special assistant on economic policy. He first served on the Fed's own Board of Governors from 2006 to 2011, including as the Fed's representative to the G20, then spent over a decade at Stanford's Hoover Institution before returning to lead the Fed.
How to trade EUR/USD
EUR/USD trades around the clock, but not with equal intensity all day. Liquidity peaks when London and New York overlap, roughly 8am to noon Eastern time, and that's when spreads tighten and price moves on real order flow rather than thin, noisy quotes. Outside that window, the same headline can produce a very different-sized move simply because fewer participants are watching.
Reading the meter above
The gauge above combines a set of moving averages and oscillators, RSI, MACD, stochastics and similar, calculated on whichever interval you pick, and reduces them to one read: strong sell, sell, neutral, buy or strong buy. It's a snapshot of current technical momentum, not a prediction. Switch the interval and the reading can flip within minutes, which is the point: a 1-hour signal and a 1-day signal are answering different questions.
What correlates with EUR/USD
EUR/USD moves close to a mirror image of the US Dollar Index, since the euro makes up the largest single weighting in that index. Put the DXY chart next to this one and the relationship becomes obvious fast. US and German bond yields matter just as much: when 10-year Treasury yields climb faster than Bund yields, the widening gap tends to pull EUR/USD lower, and the reverse holds when the gap narrows.
The most common mistake
Traders trip up most often on this pair by trading the Asian session the way they'd trade London or New York. Ranges run tighter and a breakout during Tokyo hours frequently reverses once London opens. If you're new to EUR/USD, watching the first hour after London opens for a week teaches more than months of Asian-session trades.
Where EUR/USD stands in 2026
The euro started 2026 flying, breaking above 1.20 in late January while markets expected the Fed to keep cutting rates. Then the story flipped. The Middle East conflict sent energy prices surging, which hit Europe’s import-dependent economy hard and pushed eurozone inflation up. The ECB responded with its first rate hike since 2023 in June, lifting its deposit rate to 2.25%. And here’s the lesson every new trader should take from this year: the euro fell anyway. The Fed turned hawkish at almost the same moment, US rates stayed far above European ones, and the Dollar Index broke above 100. A rate hike doesn’t guarantee a stronger currency; what matters is how both sides move relative to each other.
By early July the pair sits around 1.14, near the bottom of its 2026 range of roughly 1.1435 to 1.2020. Analyst views span that whole band. The case for a stronger euro rests on the ECB continuing to hike while soft patches in US data, like the surprisingly weak jobs report in early July, force the Fed to relent. The case for a weaker euro rests on the Fed staying tough on its higher inflation problem, keeping the dollar firm. The next chapters get written in late July, when the ECB decides on the 23rd and the Fed follows on the 29th.
October 2026 update
EUR/USD trades near 1.1263 on 6 October, down 1.6% since early July and 4.1% lower this year. On 5 October it touched 1.1166, its weakest level in 16 months and below the 1.13 floor of the range many analysts set for 2026, as reports of a possible early election in Spain and stress in French bonds weighed on the euro.
Both central banks have moved since July. The ECB’s deposit rate now stands at 2.50% and the Fed’s target range at 3.75% to 4.00%, so US rates still pay well over a point more. With the 14-day RSI near 18, the pair is deeply oversold, which often comes before a bounce even inside a downtrend. The next decisions are the Fed on 28 October and the ECB on 29 October.
Background figures date from July 2026; the October update uses market data as of 6 October 2026 and central bank rates as published in late September. Analyst views are opinions, not guarantees.
EUR/USD trading FAQs
What does EUR/USD mean?
It’s the price of one euro measured in US dollars. A rate of 1.1440 means one euro buys about $1.14. When the rate rises, the euro is strengthening against the dollar; when it falls, the dollar is gaining. The euro is always the base of the pair, so “buying EUR/USD” means betting on the euro.
Why is EUR/USD the most traded pair in the world?
It connects the two largest currencies on earth, so nearly every global bank, fund, and company touches it. All that activity makes it the most liquid market there is, which means the tightest spreads, the smoothest price movement, and the least slippage. That’s also why it’s the standard recommendation for a first pair.
Why did the euro fall in 2026 even after the ECB raised rates?
Because currencies move on the difference between two sides, not one side alone. The ECB’s hike to 2.25% was outweighed by the Fed holding US rates far higher at 3.50-3.75% and signalling it might go further. Traders compared the two and still preferred the dollar. It’s one of the most useful lessons in forex: always ask what the other side is doing.
What is a pip on EUR/USD?
A pip is the smallest standard price step: 0.0001. If the pair moves from 1.1440 to 1.1441, that’s one pip. On a standard lot (100,000 units) a pip is worth about $10, on a mini lot about $1, and on a micro lot about $0.10. EUR/USD typically moves 50-80 pips in a day, so size your positions with that in mind.
What’s the best time of day to trade EUR/USD?
The London-New York overlap, roughly 1pm to 5pm UTC, is when volume and movement peak. Major US data also lands in that window, including the jobs report and inflation figures that move this pair most. Asian hours are usually quiet for EUR/USD, with tighter ranges and less follow-through.
Can I rely on the forecast on this page?
Use it as one input, not a plan. The projection shows a statistically likely range based on recent volatility. It doesn’t know about tomorrow’s Fed comment, a data surprise, or a geopolitical headline. No forecast does. Combine it with your own analysis and risk limits.
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Every market below has its own page just like this one, with a live chart, a forecast range, and buy/sell signals. Pick a pair to see where it’s heading, or open today’s analysis for ready-made trade setups.
The team behind this guide
Researched, checked and approved by five forex specialists
Every guide is written, fact-checked and edited before it goes live, and updated when the facts change. Spotted an error? Tell us.
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