Dollar Rises Against All Six Major Currencies After US Inflation Data as EUR/USD Falls to Its Lowest Since May 2025

The US dollar gained against every major currency the day after the October inflation report. The European Central Bank's reference rate for the euro was 1.1127 dollars on Wednesday 11 November, down from 1.1214 on Tuesday. That is the lowest ECB reference rate for EUR/USD since 13 May 2025, when it stood at 1.1112.

Tuesday's rate was set at about 13:15 UTC, a quarter of an hour before the Bureau of Labor Statistics published consumer prices, so Wednesday's fixing is the first official reading to include the reaction. US consumer prices rose 0.4% in October and core prices 0.3% for a third straight month, above the Cleveland Fed's nowcast of 0.24% and 0.21%. Treasury yields jumped that afternoon, and the dollar followed.

Six currencies, one direction

Every pair we track moved the same way. Derived from the ECB's reference rates, the dollar gained 1.12% against the Swiss franc, 0.87% against the pound and 0.78% against the euro. Its rise against the Canadian dollar was 0.70%, against the yen 0.66% and against the Australian dollar 0.64%.

When all six fall together against the dollar, the driver usually sits on the US side. On Tuesday that was the CPI report and the jump in Treasury yields it set off. Several of these readings are also notable on their own. AUD/USD is at its lowest reference-rate level since 22 January, USD/CAD at its highest since 13 October and USD/JPY at its highest since 2 September.

A note on method: the ECB publishes euro rates, so the other pairs are crosses. GBP/USD is EUR/USD divided by EUR/GBP, and USD/JPY is EUR/JPY divided by EUR/USD. All of them are snapshots taken at about the same moment each working day, which makes them good for comparing days but useless for intraday highs and lows.

What the bond market did

The US Treasury's daily yield curve shows the size of the rate move. The 2-year yield closed at 4.73% on Tuesday against 4.56% on Monday, a rise of 17 basis points and its highest close since 21 October. Over the same day the 10-year yield climbed to 4.98% from 4.88%, while the 10-year real yield, the return after inflation, rose to 2.78% from 2.66%.

Wednesday was Veterans Day, a US federal holiday, and there is no Treasury yield curve for it. The ECB still set its rates, because 11 November is a normal working day in the euro area. That is why the currency data in this story run one day further than the yield data.

Short-term yields matter most for currencies. The 2-year yield tracks what investors expect from the Federal Reserve over the next couple of years, and a higher figure makes dollar deposits and bills more attractive than those in places where rates are expected to stay put. The Fed held its target range at 3.75% to 4.00% on 28 October, with two officials voting for a rise, and its next decision is on 9 December. November's CPI is due on 10 December, one day after that meeting, so October's report is the last consumer price reading policymakers will have.

USD/JPY near the summer intervention zone

The yen deserves a closer look. USD/JPY, derived from the ECB's euro rates against the dollar and the yen, was 159.23 on Wednesday, its highest since 2 September. On this measure it has not been above 160 since 1 September, when it reached 160.16.

Japan's Ministry of Finance has acted once this year. Its monthly reports show ¥15,399.3 billion of foreign exchange intervention between 30 July and 26 August, and none in the two reporting periods to 28 October. On the ECB-derived measure, USD/JPY peaked at 163.91 on 28 July and was 160.24 by 31 July, so the ministry stepped in well above Wednesday's level. Its daily breakdown arrives only in the quarterly report.

The Bank of Japan matters as much as the ministry. Its policy rate is 1.25% after the 30 October meeting, where one member voted for a rise to 1.5%, and the Summary of Opinions published on 10 November showed several members want to reach a neutral rate soon. Its next decision is on 18 December. A wide gap between US and Japanese yields keeps pressure on the yen until one side changes course.

Gold slips below $4,000

Gold, priced in dollars, fell for a second day. Spot gold was $3,978.80 at 06:22 UTC on Thursday 12 November, according to gold-api.com, down from $4,045.60 at 03:03 UTC on Wednesday and $4,112.40 before the CPI report on Tuesday. This is the first reading in our log below $4,000 since 2 November, and the metal now trades 3.9% below the $4,138.40 reading of 5 November.

A stronger dollar makes gold dearer for buyers who pay in other currencies, and higher real yields raise the cost of holding a metal that pays no interest. Both forces pointed the same way this week. Our story on gold and real yields covers that second channel in detail.

EUR/USD levels to watch

These levels come from the ECB reference rates only, one per working day, so they show where the euro has turned rather than intraday extremes.

The euro now sits below its 20-day average of 1.1195, its 50-day average of 1.1323 and its 100-day average of 1.1409. Its 14-day relative strength index (RSI) on reference rates is 39.7, which is weak but not stretched. A return above 1.1214 would undo the CPI move. Staying under 1.1130 keeps the May 2025 levels in view.

What comes next

Britain's Office for National Statistics reported on Thursday that GDP grew 0.7% in the third quarter, after 0.5% in the second; see our UK GDP report. The next US test is Friday at 13:30 UTC, when the BLS publishes October producer prices, after September's 1.3% jump in final demand prices, the largest since March 2022.

Thursday's own ECB reference rate, due at about 13:15 UTC, will show whether the dollar held its gains for a second day. Fed officials also speak through the rest of the month before their pre-meeting quiet period, and any comment on December feeds straight into the 2-year yield, which is the number to watch for the dollar.

What it means for traders

• Treat this as a dollar move, not six separate stories. If US yields keep rising, expect the dollar to stay firm across the board; if they ease, the pairs that fell hardest, such as USD/CHF and GBP/USD, may bounce first.
• Watch 160 in USD/JPY. It is close to where the yen pair stood before the summer intervention, and official warnings can arrive with little notice.
• Check the Friday PPI time, 13:30 UTC, and avoid opening new positions in the minutes around it when spreads widen.
• Size trades for wider ranges. A 0.8% daily move in EUR/USD is about 87 pips, roughly twice a quiet day.
• Our EUR/USD analysis and USD/JPY analysis show the live price and the levels we track.

Frequently asked

Sources: European Central Bank: euro foreign exchange reference rates · US Treasury: daily par yield curve rates, November 2026 · Japan Ministry of Finance: intervention operations, 29 September to 28 October 2026 · gold-api.com: spot gold price · US Bureau of Labor Statistics: Consumer Price Index, October 2026 · Bank of Japan: Summary of Opinions, 29-30 October 2026