EURUSD Technical Analysis: Sellers Stay in Control Into a Weak Low

The intraday trend remains firmly bearish after last week’s repeated CHoCH failures and successive BOS breaks lower. Nearby resistance sits at the 1.1590–1.1617 supply band, while the pair is testing a freshly marked weak low near 1.1554. Today’s main catalyst isn’t Eurozone data but positioning ahead of this week’s Federal Reserve decision, which keeps this EURUSD technical analysis session cautious and headline-driven.

Today’s Economic Calendar

Time (GMT)	Economic Event	Impact	Possible Effect on EURUSD
All day	No major Eurozone releases scheduled	Low	Light calendar keeps price reactive to broader dollar flows
09:00 (Tue)	German/Eurozone ZEW Economic Sentiment	Medium	First real EUR catalyst of the week, due tomorrow
All week	FOMC Meeting (Sept 15–16)	High	Main driver; rate decision and dot plot due Wednesday 2:00 PM ET

Today’s calendar is deliberately thin for the euro. With ZEW due tomorrow and the Fed decision Wednesday, expect lower-volume, headline-sensitive trade into the European close.

EURUSD Market Structure Analysis

The M15 chart shows a bearish structure that has dominated since September 9. An early cluster of Change of Character (CHoCH) signals near 1.1650 marked equal highs and repeated failed attempts to hold gains, a hallmark of Smart Money Concepts distribution before a trend leg.

Each recovery attempt since then has been capped lower. The chart marks a sequence of Break of Structure events at 1.1633, 1.1616, 1.1591, and 1.1565, each confirming sellers regaining control after a brief bounce. The 1.1590–1.1617 zone, built from stacked equal-high and BOS levels through September 11–13, now functions as a layered order block supply area capping any relief rally.

Price has since broken the 1.1565 support and printed a weak low near 1.1554, the lowest point on this chart. RSI(14) reads 29.99, at the edge of oversold territory, which often precedes a pause or short-lived bounce even inside a strong downtrend rather than an outright reversal. The label “weak low” matters here: it suggests the low lacks a strong reactive push yet, so a retest or marginal break is more likely than a clean bottom. For today’s session, this favors selling into support and resistance retests rather than picking a bottom in a chart that hasn’t shown a bullish CHoCH since September 11.

EURUSD Trading Plan Today

Entry Plan	Market Bias	Entry Zone	Stop Loss	Take Profit 1	Take Profit 2	Risk Reward	Possible Gain (Pips)
1	Bearish	1.1580–1.1590 (supply retest)	1.1605	1.1560	1.1540	1:2.0	20–50
2	Bearish	1.1554–1.1560 (weak-low retest, rejection)	1.1572	1.1535	1.1510	1:1.9	19–44
3	Bullish	1.1545–1.1554 (oversold bounce, confirmed reversal only)	1.1530	1.1570	1.1590	1:2.1	16–36
4	Bearish	Break and close below 1.1545	1.1562	1.1520	1.1495	1:1.5	25–50

Confirmation rule: wait for a 15-minute close confirming direction at each zone, and require a clear rejection wick before fading the weak low. Avoid new entries in the two hours around Wednesday’s FOMC statement.

EURUSD Price Outlook

Bullish Scenario: A reclaim and 15-minute close back above 1.1590 would signal exhaustion of the current leg and open room toward 1.1617. Confirmation needs a bullish CHoCH on the M15 chart, not just a wick off the weak low. Invalidation sits below 1.1554, which keeps the broader bearish structure intact.

Bearish Scenario: A decisive close below 1.1545 extends the trend that has run since September 9, exposing the next round-number area near 1.1520. Confirmation is a fresh BOS with RSI staying pinned under 30. Invalidation is a reclaim of 1.1565, which would stall the bearish continuation.

Key Support and Resistance Levels

Level	Technical Reason
Resistance 2	1.1617 — Strong high / equal-high cluster from September 11
Resistance 1	1.1590–1.1605 — Layered BOS/EQH supply zone
Pivot	1.1565 — Most recent broken BOS level
Support 1	1.1554 — Current weak low
Support 2	1.1520 (round-number projection) — Untested; next reaction area if 1.1554 breaks

What Happened in Last Week

Last week’s structure was defined by repeated CHoCH failures near 1.1650 early on, followed by a persistent sequence of lower BOS levels through September 10–13. Each bounce attempt was sold into a lower high, a classic bearish continuation pattern rather than a genuine reversal. The move coincided with the ECB’s September 9–10 policy meeting, where the central bank kept its data-dependent, meeting-by-meeting stance intact, offering the euro little independent support. With the dollar side of the equation dominated by rising expectations for this week’s Fed decision, the rate-differential narrative stayed euro-negative into the weekend.

This Week’s Technical and News Impact Overall

This week is dominated by the FOMC meeting on September 15–16, with the rate decision and updated dot plot due Wednesday at 2:00 PM ET. The German and Eurozone ZEW sentiment survey lands Tuesday and is the first real euro-specific data point of the week. Price structure remains capped under the 1.1590–1.1617 supply zone and is now probing a fresh weak low at 1.1554. A dovish Fed surprise could trigger a sharp short-covering bounce toward 1.1590–1.1617; a hawkish hold likely extends the slide toward 1.1520. Expect tight, headline-driven ranges into Tuesday, then a volatility expansion around the Fed statement.

Geopolitical Factors and Market Impact

Ongoing trade-policy uncertainty between the US and its major partners, along with any fresh developments in Middle East tensions, continues to support intermittent dollar safe-haven demand, a headwind for EURUSD. Should risk sentiment deteriorate further, expect the dollar to draw additional flows at the euro’s expense, reinforcing the current bearish structure. Conversely, a de-escalation or a dovish Fed outcome would remove part of that dollar premium, giving the euro room to test the 1.1590–1.1617 zone.

Final Outlook

EURUSD technical analysis favors a bearish bias while price holds under 1.1590. The 1.1554 weak low is the most important level today. Main confirmation is a closed break below it targeting 1.1520; main invalidation is a reclaim of 1.1590, which would shift the near-term picture toward consolidation.

“This chart hasn’t given sellers a real reason to stop yet — every bounce has been sold, and the weak low at 1.1554 is more likely to get retested than to hold as a floor.” — Ranjan Niskrity, Senior Contributor & Technical Lead, FXRecap

Analyst’s Note

The repeated CHoCH failures near 1.1650 told you the top was in well before the first BOS confirmed it; watch for the same pattern in reverse before calling a bottom here.

Read More

• Learn how liquidity sweeps and reversals fit into Smart Money Concepts
• See how the 1.1590–1.1617 zone qualifies as an Order Block Trading Strategy setup
• Understand today’s structural shifts with Change of Character (CHoCH)
• Review the Break of Structure sequence behind this week’s decline
• Brush up on Support and Resistance before trading the range

Follow FXRecap on YouTube for quick, chart-based analysis of gold, forex majors, indices, and major market moves: https://www.youtube.com/@fxrecap

Disclaimer

This EURUSD technical analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute personalized financial advice. Trading involves risk; always conduct independent research.