EURUSD Technical Analysis: Euro Struggles to Reclaim Broken Support After the Fed Flush
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EUR/USD's ECB reference rate was 1.1133 on Wednesday 28 October, 17 pips below Tuesday's 1.1150 and the lowest reference rate of 2026 for a second day. The pair is 74 pips under its 20-day average (1.1207) and about 280 pips under the 50 and 100-day averages near 1.1415 to 1.1440. The 14-day RSI on the reference rates is about 30, at the edge of oversold. The rate was set before the Fed held its range on Wednesday evening; the ECB decides today at 13:15 UTC.

EUR/USD at a Glance

EUR/USD · Euro / US Dollar
1.1133 (ECB, 28 Oct)−17 pips (−0.15%)
29 October 2026, ECB rates of 28 Oct, gold 03:43 UTC · change vs previous reference rate
Today's biasBearish
BearishNeutralBullish
Bearish below 1.1190; RSI near 30
7-day range1.1133 to 1.1234101 pips, daily reference rates
RSI (14-day)30 · Neutral zone
3070
Moving averages
20-day1.1207 ▼
50-day1.1414 ▼
100-day1.1440 ▼
Price below all three
20-day range1.1133 to 1.1298
LowHigh

1Wednesday's 1.1133 is a second straight 2026 low.

2The broken 1.1180 zone is now the first resistance.

3US GDP, PCE and the ECB today; RSI near 30.

Analysis, not financial advice. Check live quotes before trading.

EUR/USD Live Chart and Technical Meter

Both widgets update in real time, so they may differ from the levels written at ECB rates of 28 Oct, gold 03:43 UTC.

EUR/USD live chart

Euro / US Dollar, real-time price
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EUR/USD technical meter

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Technical summary by TradingView, updated live. A reading of indicators, not a trade signal or advice.

Key Support and Resistance Levels

Distance is measured from the price at ECB rates of 28 Oct, gold 03:43 UTC.

R 31.1255+122 pips16 October reference-rate swing high (1.1253)
R 21.1210+77 pips20-day average (1.1207), under the 21 October swing high (1.1234)
R 11.1180+47 pips7 and 12 October swing lows (1.1177, 1.1181), broken on 27 October
Now1.1133 (ECB, 28 Oct)CurrentPrice at the time of writing
S 11.1130−3 pips28 October reference rate (1.1133), the new 2026 low
S 21.1100−33 pipsRound number below the new low
S 31.1000−133 pipsNext round number, a widely watched level

EUR/USD Trading Plan Today

Three setups for the rest of the week. One sells a bounce into the broken 1.1175 to 1.1185 zone, another sells a further close below 1.1120, and the third buys a close back above 1.1215. US GDP and PCE inflation land at 12:30 UTC today and the ECB decides 45 minutes later, so expect sharp swings in both directions. With the RSI near 30, a short-covering bounce is possible before the next leg.

Sell

Sell the bounce

Entry
1.1175–1.1185
Stop
1.1220
TP 1
1.1130
TP 2
1.1100
Risk : reward1:1.3–2.0
Possible gain50–80 pips
Sell

Sell the breakdown

Entry
Below 1.1120 (close)
Stop
1.1160
TP 1
1.1080
TP 2
1.1050
Risk : reward1:1.0–1.8
Possible gain40–70 pips
Buy

Buy a failed break

Entry
Above 1.1215 (close)
Stop
1.1175
TP 1
1.1255
TP 2
1.1300
Risk : reward1:1.0–2.1
Possible gain40–85 pips

The levels come from daily reference rates, not intraday highs and lows, so allow a few pips either side and check the live chart before you enter. Size each setup so a stop-out costs no more than 1% to 2% of your account; the position size calculator does the maths.

Show the setups as a table
Market BiasEntry ZoneStop LossTake Profit 1Take Profit 2Risk RewardPossible Gain (pips)
Bearish1.1175–1.11851.12201.11301.11001:1.3–2.050–80
BearishBelow 1.1120 (close)1.11601.10801.10501:1.0–1.840–70
BullishAbove 1.1215 (close)1.11751.12551.13001:1.0–2.140–85

EUR/USD Price Outlook: Bull and Bear Cases

Bearish scenario

Strong US data after a Fed hold with two hawkish dissents, or a cautious ECB, could extend the slide. A close below 1.1120 would open 1.1080, then 1.1050. The scenario fails on a close above 1.1215.

Bullish scenario

If the ECB sounds firm about inflation and US data disappoint, the pair could reclaim 1.1180 and close above 1.1215, targeting 1.1255, then 1.1300. Below that, rallies stay corrections inside the downtrend.

EUR/USD Market Structure and Indicators

20-day average1.1207Price below by 74 pips
50-day average1.1414Price below by 281 pips
100-day average1.1440Price below by 307 pips
14-day RSI30Between 30 and 70

On the ECB's daily reference rates, EUR/USD is still in a downtrend. The 60-day high was 1.1699 and the rate has since made lower highs: 1.1269 on 6 October, 1.1253 on 16 October and 1.1234 on 21 October. Wednesday's 1.1133 sits under the 20-day average (1.1207) and far below the 50-day (1.1414) and 100-day (1.1440), so every rally this month has been sold.

The floor at 1.1177 to 1.1181, the swing lows of 7 and 12 October, broke on Tuesday and the rate fell further on Wednesday. Broken support often turns into resistance, so that zone is now the first cap above the rate. A close below 1.1120 would extend the slide towards 1.1080 and 1.1050, while a reference rate back above 1.1215, over the 20-day average, would turn this week's drop into a false break and open 1.1255 to 1.1300. Our support and resistance guide explains how to read these turning points.

Last 7 Days Recap

1.12341.11841.1133Tue20 OctWed21 OctThu22 OctFri23 OctMon26 OctTue27 OctWed28 Oct

Over the last seven working days the EUR/USD reference rate fell from 1.1225 to 1.1133, a net loss of 92 pips, with one rise and six falls. The only gain was 19 pips on 21 October, to 1.1234. Tuesday's 38-pip drop was the biggest of the period, ahead of 29 pips on 22 October, and Wednesday's 17-pip fall left the rate at 1.1133, the lowest of the seven days and of 2026.

DateReference rateChange
Tue 20 Oct1.1215−10 pips (−0.09%)
Wed 21 Oct1.1234+19 pips (+0.17%)
Thu 22 Oct1.1205−29 pips (−0.26%)
Fri 23 Oct1.1193−12 pips (−0.11%)
Mon 26 Oct1.1188−5 pips (−0.04%)
Tue 27 Oct1.1150−38 pips (−0.34%)
Wed 28 Oct1.1133−17 pips (−0.15%)
7-day range1.1133 to 1.1234−92 pips (−0.82%)
Last 7 working days. ECB euro reference rates, set around 14:15 CET each working day. Change is from the previous working day's rate.

Today’s Economic Calendar and News

  • US GDP and PCE inflationHigh impact
  • ECB rate decisionHigh impact
  • Bank of Japan decisionHigh impact

Wednesday brought two rate decisions after Europe's reference rates were set. The Bank of Canada raised its policy rate to 2.5%, its first increase since July 2023, and the Federal Reserve held its range at 3.75% to 4.00% in a 10-2 vote, with Lisa Cook and Beth Hammack voting for a quarter-point rise. On the US Treasury's par curve, the 2-year yield slipped to 4.67% and the 10-year rose to 5.05%. Today brings US third-quarter GDP and September PCE inflation at 12:30 UTC and the ECB decision at 13:15 UTC, with the Bank of Japan on Friday. Prices on this page are official reference rates from Wednesday 28 October, set before both decisions; the live chart shows where the market trades now. For EUR/USD, euro area inflation rose to 3.8% in September; our ECB preview sets out what today could bring, and our Fed decision story covers Wednesday's hold.

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Geopolitical Factors and Market Impact

Energy prices remain the main outside force on the euro. Europe imports most of its energy, so higher oil and gas weigh on its economy, while they also lift US inflation. The ECB's own September account named gas supply and a cold winter as upside risks to inflation. Until energy costs ease, rallies in the euro are likely to meet sellers below 1.1255.

Final Outlook and Analyst’s Note

Bottom line

The bias stays bearish below 1.1190 after two straight 2026 lows, the latest at 1.1133. Selling a bounce into the broken 1.1180 zone is the cleaner trade; a close below 1.1120 would keep sellers in charge, and a close above 1.1215 would switch the bias to bullish. Today's US data and ECB decision will decide whether the break extends.

Two new lows in two days and an RSI at 30. The trend is clearly down, but the move is stretched, and an ECB surprise could spark a sharp squeeze, so I would rather sell a bounce than chase.

“I would sell 1.1175 to 1.1185 with a stop above 1.1220, looking for 1.1130 and then 1.1100. A close back above 1.1215 would tell me the break has failed.”

Tanbir Habib Riyad, Forex & Crypto Analyst, FX Recap

Before You Trade: Checklist and Tools

  • Confirm the bias: Bearish below 1.1190; RSI near 30. Trade with it unless price closes beyond the levels that cancel it.
  • Mark the key levels on your own chart: resistance 1.1180 · 1.1210 · 1.1255, support 1.1130 · 1.1100 · 1.1000.
  • Note the event times: US GDP and PCE inflation (thu 29 oct), ECB rate decision (thu 29 oct), Bank of Japan decision (fri 30 oct). Spreads often widen around Thu 29 Oct UTC.
  • Place the stop loss before you enter, at the level shown on the setup card, and never move it further away.
  • Size the position so a stop-out costs no more than 1% to 2% of your account.
  • Check your own chart and your state of mind with Chart Pre-Flight before you enter.
Position size calculatorLots for your riskPip calculatorValue of each pipRisk-reward calculatorCheck the ratioChart Pre-FlightCheck your own chart

Other markets today

GBP/USD Neutral1.3288 (ECB-derived, 28 Oct) · Neutral between 1.3275 and 1.3410Gold Neutral$4,045 (spot, 03:43 UTC) · Neutral above $4,000; $4,050 is the testUSD/JPY Neutral157.96 (ECB-derived, 28 Oct) · Neutral between 157.45 and 158.25AUD/USD Neutral0.7033 (ECB-derived, 28 Oct) · Neutral, range 0.6980 to 0.7045

Read More

For traders working through today’s setup, these guides cover the concepts used in this EURUSD Technical Analysis:

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Disclaimer

This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute personalized financial advice. Trading involves risk, and past chart behavior does not guarantee future results.

Source for the ECB’s current policy rates: European Central Bank — Key ECB Interest Rates