IC Markets
Next central bank decisions
Rate decisions are the biggest scheduled driver of every forecast on this page. Mark them before you trade.
- 🇦🇺Reserve Bank of AustraliaCash rate 4.35%Tue 29 Sep05:30 UK
- 🇳🇿Reserve Bank of New ZealandOCR 2.75%Wed 28 Oct01:00 UK
- 🇨🇦Bank of CanadaPolicy rate 2.25%Wed 28 Oct13:45 UK
- 🇺🇸US Federal ReserveFed funds 3.75–4.00%Wed 28 Oct18:00 UK
- 🇪🇺European Central BankDeposit rate 2.50%Thu 29 Oct13:15 UK
- 🇯🇵Bank of JapanPolicy rate 1.25%Fri 30 OctNo fixed time
- 🇦🇺Reserve Bank of AustraliaCash rateTue 3 Nov03:30 UK
- 🇬🇧Bank of EnglandBank Rate 3.75%Thu 5 Nov12:00 UK
- 🇦🇺Reserve Bank of AustraliaCash rateTue 8 Dec03:30 UK
- 🇺🇸US Federal ReserveFed fundsWed 9 Dec19:00 UK
- 🇨🇭Swiss National BankPolicy rate 0%Thu 10 Dec08:30 UK
- 🇬🇧Bank of EnglandBank RateThu 17 Dec12:00 UK
Full 2026 and 2027 schedules and live releases are on our forex economic calendar.
What moves exchange rates
Every forecast comes back to a handful of forces. When two of them point the same way, moves tend to be bigger and last longer.
Interest rates
Higher rates, or the expectation of them, usually pull money into a currency. Central bank meetings are the biggest scheduled movers.
Inflation
Hot inflation data raises the odds of higher rates, so CPI releases often move a currency within seconds.
Growth and jobs
GDP, PMI surveys and employment reports show whether an economy can support higher rates.
Risk sentiment
In calm markets money flows to higher-yielding and emerging currencies; in stress it runs to the US dollar, the yen, the Swiss franc and gold.
Trade and commodities
Oil prices weigh on importers such as India, while metal exporters such as South Africa gain when commodity prices rise.
Politics and policy
Elections, budgets, tariffs and conflicts can reprice a currency overnight, well outside any chart pattern.
What moves each pair we forecast
Every pair has two sides, and usually one of them does most of the work. Here is what to watch for each instrument.
| Instrument | Main driver | What to watch |
|---|---|---|
| EUR/USD | The gap between Fed and ECB policy | US jobs and inflation data, ECB and Fed meetings, euro-area growth |
| GBP/USD | Bank of England vs Fed rate expectations | UK CPI and wage growth, BoE votes, US data, UK fiscal news |
| EUR/GBP | ECB vs Bank of England policy | Relative inflation and growth between the euro area and the UK; usually a slower, range-bound cross |
| USD/ZAR | Global risk appetite and the US dollar | SARB decisions, commodity prices, South African politics and power supply; the rand swings sharply in risk-off moves |
| EUR/INR | The rupee side more than the euro | Oil prices (India imports most of its oil), RBI policy and intervention, foreign capital flows, EUR/USD direction |
| XAU/USD | Real interest rates and the dollar | US real yields, Fed expectations, central bank gold buying, safe-haven demand in conflicts |
| XAG/USD | Gold's direction plus industrial demand | Solar panel and electronics demand, the gold price, global manufacturing data; moves more sharply than gold |
Central banks and drivers in depth
- How US Federal Reserve Decisions Ripple Into Asian Currencies
- Bank of Japan's Rate Path and Why USD/JPY Keeps Swinging
- USD/JPY and the Return of Yen Intervention: What Traders Need to Watch
- Inside the US-Japan Currency Intervention and What Happens Next
- China's Yuan Fixing Explained: What the Daily Rate Really Means
- What China’s GDP Data Means for USD/CNH Traders
- Reserve Bank of India Rate Decisions and USD/INR: What to Watch
- How the Middle East Oil Shock Is Reaching Asian Currencies
- Bank Indonesia and the Rupiah: Why USD/IDR Reacts to Capital Flows
- Monetary Authority of Singapore’s Unusual Policy Tool, Explained
- Bank of Thailand and USD/THB: Tourism, Exports, and the Baht
- RBI’s Gold Reserves and What They Signal About the Rupee
How currency forecasts are made
Four approaches, each good at something different. Our forecast pages combine the first two.
| Method | Looks at | Best for | Weak spot |
|---|---|---|---|
| Technical | Charts, trend, levels, indicators | Entry timing and the short term | Can't see a surprise rate decision coming |
| Fundamental | Rates, inflation, growth, trade | Direction over weeks to months | Slow to react; markets often price news in early |
| Sentiment | Trader positioning, such as COT reports and retail ratios | Spotting crowded trades | Crowds can stay one-sided for a long time |
| Consensus | Bank and analyst forecasts | What the market already expects | Forecasts are revised often and miss big shocks |
New to charts? Start with our technical analysis guide.
How accurate are currency forecasts?
Nobody forecasts exchange rates reliably. Studies of bank forecasts have long found that many struggle to beat a simple "no change" guess, and the further ahead a forecast looks, the less reliable it gets.
A good forecast is a range with reasons, not a single number: what would need to happen for price to go up, what would send it down, and which level proves the idea wrong. That's why our forecast pages show a 30-day range and the drivers behind it, next to a live gauge that updates as price moves.
Be wary of long-range predictions for 2030 and beyond. They make good headlines, but no model can see that far through rate cycles, elections and shocks.
How to use a forecast in your trading
- Check the bigger trend
Start with the forecast page's direction and range. Only look for trades that agree with it, or wait.
- Mark the event risk
Note the next central bank decision and the big data releases for both currencies. Forecasts can flip on those days.
- Define where you're wrong
Pick the level that would invalidate the forecast, and put your stop beyond it.
- Size for the range
Wider expected ranges (gold, USD/ZAR) need smaller positions for the same risk. Use the lot size calculator.
- Review weekly
Revisit the forecast after each major release. If the reasons have changed, the trade idea has too.
Six forecasting mistakes to avoid
Currency forecast FAQs
How are these currency forecasts built?
Each page combines a live TradingView chart, a technical gauge computed from moving averages and oscillators, a 30-day forecast range, and a written breakdown of the drivers, key levels and common mistakes for that pair.
Which pairs and metals are covered?
EUR/USD, GBP/USD, EUR/GBP, USD/ZAR, EUR/INR, gold (XAU/USD) and silver (XAG/USD), each with its own forecast page.
Can anyone predict exchange rates accurately?
Not consistently. Even professional forecasters often miss, especially further ahead. Treat any forecast as a range of likely outcomes with a clear point where it's proven wrong, not as a guaranteed target.
What moves currency prices the most?
Interest rates and expectations about them, followed by inflation, growth and jobs data, risk sentiment, commodity prices and politics. Central bank meetings are the biggest scheduled events.
How often does the technical read update?
The chart and the buy / sell gauge are live and update continuously on whichever interval you choose, while the written analysis is reviewed and refreshed periodically.
What's the difference between a forecast and technical analysis?
Our technical analysis reports focus on today's chart and intraday levels. Forecast pages look further ahead, combining the technical view with the fundamental drivers to give a 30-day range.
Are these forecasts financial advice?
No. They're educational reference material, not personal financial advice or a trade signal. Always do your own analysis, use a stop-loss, and never risk money you can't afford to lose.
Risk warning: forecasts describe what current data suggests, not where price will go. They are educational, not signals or financial advice. Forex, CFD and metals trading carries a high risk of losing money quickly.