US CPI Today: Pump Prices Eased in October After September's 0.6% Jump, So Core Inflation Will Steer the Fed and the Dollar

The US Bureau of Labor Statistics publishes the Consumer Price Index for October on Tuesday 10 November at 08:30 New York time, which is 13:30 UTC. It is the most important release of the week for currency traders, and it arrives with the Federal Reserve split over whether it needs to raise rates again in December.

September set a high bar. Consumer prices rose 0.6% in a single month, the annual rate climbed to 3.7% from 3.4%, and gasoline alone accounted for more than half of the increase. October looks different at the pump: the Energy Information Administration's weekly survey shows regular gasoline getting cheaper in every week of the month. That shifts attention to core inflation, which strips out food and energy and is the measure Fed officials watch for lasting price pressure.

What September's report showed

The September figures, published on 14 October, were driven by fuel. The energy index rose 5.2% on the month and stood 20.4% above its level a year earlier. Gasoline jumped 9.1% after a 3.9% rise in August and was 34.2% dearer than in September 2025. Food was flat on the month, with grocery prices down 0.1%, and shelter rose 0.4% after 0.3%.

Core prices rose 0.3% for a second month, and their annual rate moved up to 2.6% from 2.4%. Neither number is alarming on its own. Both are going the wrong way, though, for a central bank that has been fighting an energy shock since the summer, and that is why traders will read the core line before anything else this afternoon.

Pay is the other half of the story. The October jobs report on 6 November showed payrolls up 165,000 and average hourly earnings up 0.4% on the month, as our payrolls report covered. Strong hiring plus firm core inflation is the mix that would push the Fed towards another rise.

Gasoline fell through October

Pump prices peaked in the week to 21 September at $4.478 a gallon, according to the EIA, and have drifted lower since. The October average was $4.310, down from $4.355 in September, and the survey for the week to 2 November showed $4.153, below every weekly reading since the end of August. A 1% fall in the monthly average is small next to September's 9.1% jump, but the direction has turned.

The CPI does not use EIA prices directly, and its seasonal adjustment can shift the result, so the pump data are a guide rather than a forecast. Still, they suggest energy will add far less to the headline figure than it did in September, and perhaps nothing at all. If the headline comes in well below 0.6% while core stays near 0.3%, the market will be looking at a cooler headline with an unchanged underlying trend, and the reaction will depend on which line traders trust.

Core inflation and the December decision

The Federal Reserve held its target range at 3.75% to 4.00% on 28 October, but two of the twelve voters, Governor Lisa D. Cook and Cleveland Fed President Beth M. Hammack, wanted a quarter-point rise. Our Fed decision report has the full statement. The next meeting ends on 9 December, and today's CPI is one of the last big numbers before it, along with November's jobs report.

The Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland's inflation nowcast, updated on 9 November, estimates October CPI at 0.24% on the month and core CPI at 0.21%. Its annual estimates are 3.74% and 2.48%. The Cleveland Fed's page notes that the BLS did not release October 2025 CPI, so its model fills that month with its own estimate, which makes year-on-year comparisons for October less clean than usual. Watch the monthly changes first.

Previews published by FXStreet and Kiplinger point to a monthly rise of roughly 0.2% to 0.3% for both measures. A core reading of 0.3% or more would match September and keep a December rise in play; 0.2% or less would give the officials who prefer to wait a stronger hand.

How the dollar, yields and gold go into the data

Bond yields have already come down a long way. The 2-year Treasury yield, the maturity most sensitive to Fed expectations, was 4.56% on 9 November against 4.82% on 14 October, the day September's CPI came out. The 10-year yield fell from 5.19% to 4.88% over the same period. Lower yields leave room for a sharp move back up if core inflation surprises on the high side.

EUR/USD's European Central Bank (ECB) reference rate was 1.1193 on Monday, almost exactly on its 20-day average of 1.1197 and inside a 20-day range of 1.1130 to 1.1267. That is a market waiting for direction. USD/JPY's derived reference rate was 157.95. Spot gold was $4,112.40 at 04:12 UTC on Tuesday, according to gold-api.com, up from $3,876.40 on 31 October, so the metal has already priced in some of the fall in yields.

• A firm core figure (0.3% or above) would most likely lift the 2-year yield and the dollar, pressure EUR/USD back towards 1.1130 and test gold's recent gains.
• A soft core figure (0.2% or below) would support the idea that the Fed can wait, which tends to weigh on the dollar and help gold.
• A soft headline with a firm core is the mixed case. The first move often follows the headline and then reverses once traders read the detail.

Weekly pump prices since September

These are the EIA's weekly averages for regular gasoline across the United States. Each date is the Monday of the survey week. They show the September spike and the steady slide through October that sits behind expectations of a smaller headline rise.

What it means for traders

• Mark 13:30 UTC in your own time zone. Spreads widen in the minutes around the release and liquidity can thin out; our economic calendar converts the time for you.
• Read core before headline. Energy explains most of the gap between the two, and core shows whether higher fuel costs are spreading into other prices.
• Check shelter and services. A second 0.4% rise in shelter would keep core sticky even if goods prices cool.
• Follow the 2-year yield. It shows within minutes how the market has changed its view of December.
• Use our EUR/USD analysis and gold analysis for the levels we track and the live price.

After today, the BLS calendar has no releases on Wednesday, which is Veterans Day. Britain's third-quarter GDP follows on Thursday at 07:00 UTC and US producer prices on Friday at 13:30 UTC, as set out in our week-ahead preview.

Frequently asked

Sources: US Bureau of Labor Statistics: Consumer Price Index, September 2026 (and October release date) · US Energy Information Administration: weekly US regular gasoline retail prices · Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland: Inflation Nowcasting · US Treasury: daily par yield curve rates, November 2026 · US Energy Information Administration: monthly US regular gasoline retail prices · US Treasury: daily par yield curve rates, October 2026 · ECB: euro foreign exchange reference rates