XAUUSD Technical Analysis: Gold Steadies After Federal Reserve decision
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Spot gold trades near $4,016 at 06:30 UTC on Friday. Futures fell $103.8, or 2.5%, on Thursday to close at $4,038.5, the lowest close since late July, and broke the twin lows near $4,075 in spot terms that had held all month. The drop came even as US Treasury yields fell sharply. This morning futures dipped to $4,000.9, about $3,980 in spot terms, before bouncing. Spot traded about $20 below futures today. The 14-day RSI is about 34, close to oversold.

Gold at a Glance

XAU/USD · Gold Spot / US Dollar
$4,016−$2 (−0.05%)
23 October 2026, 06:30 UTC · change vs previous close
Today's biasBearish
BearishNeutralBullish
Bearish below $4,075; testing $4,000
Today's range$3,980 to $4,027$47 so far
RSI (14-day)34 · Neutral zone
3070
Moving averages
20-day$4,153 ▼
50-day$4,328 ▼
100-day$4,239 ▼
Price below all three
20-day range$3,980 to $4,332
LowHigh

1Thursday's 2.5% drop broke the $4,075 twin lows.

2Futures closed at their lowest since late July.

3RSI near 34 is close to oversold, so bounces can be sharp.

Gold figures are spot equivalents of futures prices, so allow a few dollars either side. Analysis, not financial advice. Check live quotes before trading.

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Key Support and Resistance Levels

Distance is measured from the price at 06:30 UTC.

R 3$4,120+$104Thursday's high (futures $4,143, about $4,120 spot)
R 2$4,075+$59Broken twin lows of 7 and 14 October, now resistance
R 1$4,030+$14Today's high (futures $4,047, about $4,027 spot)
Now$4,016CurrentPrice at the time of writing
S 1$4,000−$16Round number
S 2$3,980−$36Today's low (futures $4,000.9, about $3,980 spot)
S 3$3,900−$116Next round number below

Gold Trading Plan Today

Three setups for the next session: sell a bounce into the broken twin lows at $4,065 to $4,075, sell a confirmed daily close below $3,975, or buy a test of $3,985 to $3,995 with a tight stop for a short-term bounce. Gold ignored falling yields on Thursday, so do not rely on that link this week.

Sell

Sell the bounce

Entry
$4,065–$4,075
Stop
$4,100
TP 1
$4,020
TP 2
$3,990
Risk : reward1:1.7–2.7
Possible gain$45–$85
Sell

Sell the breakdown

Entry
Below $3,975 (close)
Stop
$4,010
TP 1
$3,930
TP 2
$3,900
Risk : reward1:1.3–2.1
Possible gain$45–$75
Buy

Buy the $4,000 test

Entry
$3,985–$3,995
Stop
$3,960
TP 1
$4,030
TP 2
$4,060
Risk : reward1:1.3–2.3
Possible gain$35–$75

Gold's daily range has run from about $40 to $110 over the past week, so stops need room. Use the gold lot size calculator to keep each loss to 1% to 2% of your account.

Show the setups as a table
Market BiasEntry ZoneStop LossTake Profit 1Take Profit 2Risk RewardPossible Gain ($ per ounce)
Bearish$4,065–$4,075$4,100$4,020$3,9901:1.7–2.7$45–$85
BearishBelow $3,975 (close)$4,010$3,930$3,9001:1.3–2.1$45–$75
Bullish$3,985–$3,995$3,960$4,030$4,0601:1.3–2.3$35–$75

Gold Price Outlook: Bull and Bear Cases

Bearish scenario

If the bounce fails below $4,030, gold could retest $4,000 and this morning's low near $3,980. A daily close below $3,975 would open $3,930 and then $3,900.

Bullish scenario

A short-covering rally could lift gold back to the broken twin lows near $4,075. Only a daily close back above $4,075 would suggest Thursday's break was a false move, and the 20-day average near $4,153 would then come into view.

Gold Market Structure and Indicators

20-day average$4,153Price below by $137
50-day average$4,328Price below by $312
100-day average$4,239Price below by $223
14-day RSI34Between 30 and 70

Gold futures topped out near $4,755 in late August and have made lower highs since. Price trades below the 20-day average (about $4,153 in spot terms), the 100-day (about $4,239) and the 50-day (about $4,328), so the bigger trend is bearish. Thursday's close below the twin lows near $4,075 spot, set on 7 and 14 October, removed the floor that had held the slide in check for a month.

The breakdown was clean. Futures opened Thursday at $4,142.6, never traded above $4,143.1, and fell steadily through the US session to close near the low. This morning's dip to about $3,980 spot was bought, but the bounce has so far stalled near $4,030. The 14-day RSI near 34 is close to oversold, which can bring sharp short-covering rallies, but it is not a buy signal on its own. Levels on this page are spot prices converted from futures and rounded to the nearest $5, so allow for a few dollars either side. Our support and resistance guide covers how broken support turns into resistance.

Last 7 Days Recap

$4,220.4$4,128.2$4,036.0Wed14 OctThu15 OctFri16 OctMon19 OctTue20 OctWed21 OctThu22 Oct

Gold futures lost $139.4, or 3.3%, over the last seven trading days, from $4,177.9 to $4,038.5, with three higher closes and four lower ones. The metal fell $45 on US CPI day, recovered $44 the next day and $4 on 16 October, then lost $29 on Monday and $19 on Tuesday. Wednesday won back $10, and Thursday's $103.8 drop, the largest of the period, took futures to $4,038.5.

DateOpenHighLowCloseChange
Wed 14 Oct$4,177.9$4,193.5$4,095.0$4,133.1−$44.8 (−1.07%)
Thu 15 Oct$4,133.2$4,197.7$4,132.0$4,176.9+$43.8 (+1.06%)
Fri 16 Oct$4,176.6$4,220.4$4,167.5$4,181.1+$4.2 (+0.10%)
Mon 19 Oct$4,205.5$4,211.2$4,150.7$4,151.7−$29.4 (−0.70%)
Tue 20 Oct$4,151.4$4,174.9$4,130.1$4,132.5−$19.2 (−0.46%)
Wed 21 Oct$4,132.2$4,164.3$4,122.3$4,142.3+$9.8 (+0.24%)
Thu 22 Oct$4,142.6$4,143.1$4,036.0$4,038.5−$103.8 (−2.51%)
7-day total$4,177.9$4,220.4$4,036.0$4,038.5−$139.4 (−3.34%)
Last 7 trading days. COMEX gold futures (front contract), UTC daily candles, USD per ounce. Spot gold traded about $20 below futures this morning, so subtract roughly that amount to compare with spot levels above.

Today’s Economic Calendar and News

  • US 10-year yield falls to 4.96%Medium impact
  • Fed rate decisionHigh impact
  • ECB rate decisionHigh impact

Overnight, Japan's Statistics Bureau said core inflation rose to 2.1% in September from 1.7%, and the ONS said UK retail sales volumes fell 0.4% in September after a revised 0.7% rise in August. On Thursday the US 10-year Treasury yield fell to 4.96% from 5.13% on the Treasury's par curve, its biggest one-day drop since August 2024, after a sell-off in technology shares reported by news outlets. The dollar index ended Thursday near 101.57 and traded about 101.67 at 06:30 UTC. Next up is the Fed decision on 28 October. For gold, the striking point is that the metal fell 2.5% on the same day US yields dropped, which usually helps it; our Treasury yields story covers the day. Selling to raise cash on risk-off days is one possible reason, but no official source confirms it.

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Geopolitical Factors and Market Impact

Energy prices are behind much of this month's inflation news, and Brent crude futures traded near $114.50 at 06:30 UTC on Friday after rising about $3 on Thursday. If oil keeps climbing, inflation fears could lift yields again and weigh on gold, while a sharp escalation in the Middle East could instead spark safe-haven buying. That two-way risk keeps gold's daily ranges wide, so keep stops in place.

Final Outlook and Analyst’s Note

Bottom line

Gold has broken its October floor and is testing $4,000. The bias is bearish below $4,075: sell bounces towards the broken twin lows, treat a daily close below $3,975 as a signal for $3,930 to $3,900, and keep any long trades small and short-term while the RSI sits near oversold.

When gold falls 2.5% on a day yields drop that hard, sellers are in control. The twin lows that held all month are now the ceiling, and I want to see how price behaves there before anything else.

“I would sell a bounce to $4,065 to $4,075 with a stop above $4,100 and take profits near $4,020 and $3,990. A daily close below $3,975 would be my signal to sell for $3,930.”

Tanbir Habib Riyad, Forex & Crypto Analyst, FX Recap

Before You Trade: Checklist and Tools

  • Confirm the bias: Bearish below $4,075; testing $4,000. Trade with it unless price closes beyond the levels that cancel it.
  • Mark the key levels on your own chart: resistance $4,030 · $4,075 · $4,120, support $4,000 · $3,980 · $3,900.
  • Note the event times: US 10-year yield falls to 4.96% (thu (done)), Fed rate decision (wed 28 oct), ECB rate decision (thu 29 oct). Spreads often widen around Thu (done) UTC.
  • Place the stop loss before you enter, at the level shown on the setup card, and never move it further away.
  • Size the position so a stop-out costs no more than 1% to 2% of your account.
  • Check your own chart and your state of mind with Chart Pre-Flight before you enter.
Gold lot size calculatorLots for your riskPip calculatorValue of each pipRisk-reward calculatorCheck the ratioChart Pre-FlightCheck your own chart

Other markets today

EUR/USD Bearish1.1218 · Bearish below 1.1260; range floor at 1.1190GBP/USD Bullish1.3394 · Bullish above 1.3355; 50-day average near 1.3409 overheadUSD/JPY Bearish156.91 · Bearish below 157.60; range floor brokenAUD/USD Neutral0.7022 · Neutral, range 0.6965 to 0.7045

Read More

For traders working through today’s setup, these guides cover the concepts used in this Gold Technical Analysis:

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Disclaimer

This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute personalized financial advice. Trading involves risk, and past chart behavior does not guarantee future results.

Source for the Fed’s policy stance: Federal Reserve — Monetary Policy involves risk of loss.

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