US Treasury Keeps Auction Sizes Steady in a $125 Billion Refunding as 10-Year Yields Ease to 4.90%

The US Treasury will sell $125 billion of notes and bonds next week in its quarterly refunding, and it expects to keep the size of its regular coupon auctions unchanged “for the next several quarters,” according to the refunding statement published on Wednesday 4 November. The package is a $58 billion 3-year note on Monday 9 November, a $42 billion 10-year note on Tuesday 10 November and a $25 billion 30-year bond on Thursday 12 November.

The refunding replaces about $97 billion of privately held debt maturing on 15 November and raises about $28 billion of new cash. Bond markets took the plan calmly. The 10-year par yield published by the Treasury was 4.90% on Wednesday, down from 4.95% on Tuesday and from 5.13% on 21 October.

For currency traders the refunding matters because US yields drive the dollar, especially against the yen. Supply that stays flat removes one reason for long-dated yields to rise, though the auctions themselves, landing alongside the US CPI report, will test demand.

What the Treasury announced

The headline decision is that nothing changes. Auction sizes for 2-, 3-, 5- and 7-year notes stay at $69 billion, $58 billion, $70 billion and $44 billion a month, and the 10-, 20- and 30-year sizes follow their usual cycle of a larger new issue followed by two smaller reopenings. “Treasury believes its current auction sizes leave it well positioned to address potential changes to the fiscal outlook,” the statement says.

Inflation-protected debt is unchanged too: a $19 billion 10-year TIPS reopening in November, a $24 billion 5-year TIPS in December and a $21 billion new 10-year TIPS in January. Any seasonal swings in borrowing needs will be met through Treasury bills, which mature in a year or less and do not add much to long-term supply.

There was one structural change. From March 2027 the 7-year note will become a quarterly new issue with two monthly reopenings, the same pattern as the 10-year. Auctions will stay at the end of each month. Reopenings build bigger, more liquid issues, which can help demand at the margin.

The statement also leaves the door open to change later. Treasury “continues to evaluate potential future changes to nominal coupon and FRN auction sizes, with a focus on trends in structural demand,” and it is watching growing demand for bills, including Federal Reserve purchases of bills for its own portfolio.

A quick note on terms for newer traders. A refunding is the set of longer-term auctions the Treasury holds in February, May, August and November to replace maturing debt. Notes run from 2 to 10 years and bonds for 20 or 30 years. The yield at auction is set by the bids, so the size of each sale and the demand for it feed straight into market interest rates, and from there into currency prices.

How much the government is borrowing

Two days earlier, on 2 November, the Treasury published its borrowing estimates. It expects to borrow $618 billion in privately held net marketable debt in October to December, $10 billion less than it estimated in August, assuming an $850 billion cash balance at the end of December. The January to March quarter is larger at $800 billion, with an assumed end-March cash balance of $1 trillion.

The previous quarter came in close to plan. Treasury borrowed $742 billion in July to September against an August estimate of $739 billion and ended the quarter with $984 billion in cash. It also said its cash account could peak at about $1.025 trillion, plus or minus $50 billion, in late November and late January because of large expected outflows at those times. Swings in that balance affect how much cash sits in the banking system, which money-market traders watch closely.

Buybacks continue. Over the coming quarter the Treasury plans to buy back up to $70 billion of older, less traded securities to support liquidity and up to $25 billion of debt maturing within two years for cash management. Buybacks do not cut total borrowing, but they help the market function smoothly during volatile periods.

Where yields stand

Treasury yields have eased since late October. The 10-year par yield fell from 5.13% on 21 October to 4.90% on 4 November, and the 2-year from 4.81% to 4.58%. Long-dated yields stay high: the 20-year was 5.30% and the 30-year 5.28%, both above the 3-month bill at 4.21%. The Federal Reserve held its target range at 3.75% to 4.00% on 28 October, so short-term bill yields sit near the policy rate.

A steeper curve, with long yields well above short ones, is often a sign that investors want extra return for holding long-term debt, partly because of large government borrowing. By promising no increase in coupon sizes, Treasury tries to keep that extra return in check. The 10-year auction on 10 November will show whether buyers still want long-dated US debt at these yields.

What it means for the dollar and gold

Lower US yields usually weigh on the dollar, and the dollar was softer this week: on ECB reference rates EUR/USD rose to 1.1267 on 4 November and GBP/USD to 1.3500. USD/JPY held near the top of its recent range at 158.25, because Japanese yields and Bank of Japan policy matter as much for that pair. Gold, which pays no interest, tends to benefit when real yields fall, and spot gold has climbed back above $4,000 this week.

Supply news rarely moves currencies on the day; auction results move them more. A weak 10-year or 30-year sale, with dealers left holding a large share, can push yields up within minutes and lift the dollar against the yen. A strong sale can do the opposite. Because the 10-year auction falls on the same day as the US CPI report on 10 November, the two can combine into one of the busiest days of the month for USD pairs.

What it means for traders

• Mark the auction times: 13:00 New York time (18:00 UTC) on 9, 10 and 12 November. Results are published a few minutes later on TreasuryDirect.
• Watch the 10-year yield around 4.90% and 5.00%. A move back above 5% after the auctions would show that supply is still a concern.
• For USD/JPY, combine yields with Japan's own news. Our USD/JPY analysis sets out the daily levels.
• Keep the calendar close. The US jobs report is due on Friday 6 November and US CPI on 10 November, both on our economic calendar.

Frequently asked

Sources: US Treasury: Quarterly Refunding Statement, 4 November 2026 · US Treasury: Treasury Announces Marketable Borrowing Estimates, 2 November 2026 · US Treasury: daily par yield curve rates · ECB: euro foreign exchange reference rates · US Treasury: quarterly refunding documents