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USD/TRY history and ranges to 2030
Month-end rates for the last 10 years, then the historical range for each year-end to 2030 and the rate-gap path, with the survey figures.
See the table →USD/TRY Forecast 2026–2030
USD/TRY is the number of liras one US dollar buys. A higher rate means a weaker lira. It was 50.14 on 9 November 2026. Below: what 21 years of ECB history, today's interest rates and the official survey of economists say about where it could be from 2027 to 2030. Ranges, not a price target.
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USD/TRY outlook in brief
Today50.149 November 2026 · +18.8% in a year
End of 202750.92 – 70.9468% historical range · middle 60.55
End of 203062.20 – 196.0668% historical range · middle 98.40
Economists59.26modified mean, Oct 2027 (12 months ahead) · CBRT
The lira has lost 15.8% of its value against the US dollar in the past year and lost 93.7% in ten years, while USD/TRY itself moved +1481.5% over the ten years (+31.8% a year). Since 2005 the US dollar has gained against the lira in 98% of stretches as long as today-to-2030. The CBRT's rate is 32.13 points above the Fed's, which tilts the rate-gap path higher.
USD/TRY at each year-end to 2030
Ranges from 21 years of ECB history, the rate-gap path with today's policy rates held, and the modified mean from the CBRT, Survey of Market Participants (October 2026, conducted 12–14 Oct).
| Year-end | 95% range | 68% range | Middle | Rate gap | Survey |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 47.32 – 56.79 | 48.85 – 53.57 | 51.07 | 52.10 | 51.55 |
| 2027 | 45.24 – 88.26 | 50.92 – 70.94 | 60.55 | 68.21 | – |
| 2028 | 46.50 – 129.24 | 56.76 – 100.79 | 69.91 | 89.38 | – |
| 2029 | 50.53 – 194.60 | 59.01 – 136.84 | 83.20 | 117.02 | – |
| 2030 | 54.42 – 247.86 | 62.20 – 196.06 | 98.40 | 153.21 | – |
The survey's 12-month-ahead figure: 59.26 for Oct 2027.
Starting point 50.14 (9 November 2026). 4,536 overlapping windows for 2030.
USD/TRY forecast by month, next 12 months
Month-end ranges from history, and the rate-gap path.
| Month-end | 68% range | Middle | Rate gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 2026 | 49.22 – 51.91 | 50.50 | 50.92 |
| Dec 2026 | 48.85 – 53.57 | 51.07 | 52.10 |
| Jan 2027 | 48.70 – 55.32 | 51.56 | 53.31 |
| Feb 2027 | 48.74 – 56.51 | 52.16 | 54.42 |
| Mar 2027 | 48.79 – 57.83 | 52.89 | 55.68 |
| Apr 2027 | 48.90 – 59.14 | 53.65 | 56.93 |
| May 2027 | 49.14 – 60.40 | 54.32 | 58.24 |
| Jun 2027 | 49.53 – 62.40 | 55.01 | 59.55 |
| Jul 2027 | 49.64 – 63.95 | 55.80 | 60.93 |
| Aug 2027 | 49.61 – 65.43 | 56.72 | 62.34 |
| Sep 2027 | 49.98 – 66.27 | 57.58 | 63.73 |
| Oct 2027 | 50.22 – 67.96 | 58.61 | 65.21 |
Will USD/TRY reach these levels?
Share of past stretches of the same length in which USD/TRY, starting from 50.14, would end at or above each level.
| Level | End of 2027 | End of 2030 |
|---|---|---|
| 100 | under 5% | |
| 150 | under 5% | |
| 200 | under 5% |
History, not probability: a crisis or a policy change can take USD/TRY outside every level here.
5 figures to quote
USD/TRY was 50.14 on 9 November 2026, +18.8% on a year earlier, so the lira weakened against the US dollar.
Source: ECB euro reference ratesIn 95% of all 4,536 past stretches of the same length since 2005, a move like history's would leave USD/TRY between 54.42 and 247.86 at the end of 2030; the middle outcome is 98.40.
Source: FX Recap calculation on ECB data since 2005With today's policy rates held to 2030 (CBRT 36%, Fed 3.875%), the rate-gap path puts USD/TRY at 153.21 at the end of 2030. That is roughly where forward contracts price the pair, not a prediction.
Source: Central Bank of the Republic of Türkiye; US Federal Reserve; FX Recap calculationEconomists in the CBRT, Survey of Market Participants (October 2026, conducted 12–14 Oct) expect USD/TRY expectations of 51.55 (End 2026), 59.26 (Oct 2027 (12 months ahead)) (modified mean, 72 participants).
Source: CBRT, Survey of Market Participants (October 2026, conducted 12–14 Oct), 14 October 2026USD/TRY's highest ECB reference rate since 2005 was 50.15 on 6 November 2026; the lowest was 1.15 on 15 January 2008.
Source: ECB euro reference rates
How to read the three numbers
Historical range
Every stretch of the same length in the ECB's history since 2005, applied to today's 50.14. Two in three end 2030 between 62.20 and 196.06; nineteen in twenty between 54.42 and 247.86. A crisis or policy change can break the pattern.
Rate-gap path
The Central Bank of the Republic of Türkiye's one-week repo rate is 36% and the US Federal Reserve's is 3.875%, so the CBRT pays 32.13 points more than the Fed. Forward contracts are priced so the extra interest is cancelled by the exchange rate: 153.21 by end-2030 if rates never change, which they will.
Survey
The CBRT, Survey of Market Participants (October 2026, conducted 12–14 Oct) (14 October 2026) asked 72 participants for their USD/TRY expectations. Surveys move with the latest rate, so read them as a snapshot of opinion.
None of these is a signal to buy or sell. A leveraged position can lose more in a day than these ranges move in a month. Our position size calculator shows what a move costs at a given size, and the currency volatility index compares how far the lira moves each week with other currencies.
USD/TRY history and records
ECB reference rates. A positive change means the lira weakened against the US dollar.
| Year | Year-end | Change |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 so far | 50.14 | +16.7% |
| 2025 | 42.96 | +21.5% |
| 2024 | 35.36 | +19.7% |
| 2023 | 29.55 | +57.9% |
| 2022 | 18.72 | +39.2% |
| 2021 | 13.45 | +81.0% |
| 2020 | 7.43 | +24.9% |
| 2019 | 5.95 | +12.5% |
| 2018 | 5.29 | +39.6% |
| 2017 | 3.79 | +7.7% |
| 2016 | 3.52 | +20.5% |
| Highest since 2005 | 50.15 6 Nov 2026 |
| Lowest since 2005 | 1.15 15 Jan 2008 |
| Last 5 years | 9.73 to 50.15 |
| Up years | 17 of 20 full years |
| Biggest yearly rises | 2021 +81.0% · 2023 +57.9% · 2018 +39.6% |
| Biggest yearly falls | 2007 −17.6% · 2012 −5.8% · 2009 −2.6% |
| Biggest 12-month rise | +120.4% 2 Sep 2021 – 2 Sep 2022 |
| Biggest 12-month fall | −23.3% 23 Jun 2006 – 22 Jun 2007 |
| Biggest one-day moves | +14.01% 13 Aug 2018 · −26.74% 21 Dec 2021 |
| Volatility | 1.5% last 12 months · 15.8% since 2005 |
| 5 and 10 years | +414.8% · +1481.5% |
USD/TRY seasonality: average move by month
Average month-end to month-end change since 2005, and how often USD/TRY rose in that month. April has been the lira's best month on average, August its worst.
Jan+1.10%up 62% of years
Feb+0.87%up 68% of years
Mar+2.37%up 73% of years
Apr+0.13%up 45% of years
May+2.65%up 59% of years
Jun+1.67%up 68% of years
Jul+0.25%up 59% of years
Aug+3.11%up 77% of years
Sep+1.24%up 68% of years
Oct+1.20%up 59% of years
Nov+2.75%up 67% of years
Dec+0.83%up 62% of years
Small averages next to normal monthly swings: not a reliable trading pattern.
What could push USD/TRY up or down
Inflation
Turkish inflation has been far above US inflation for years, and that gap explains most of the lira's long slide. Market participants in the CBRT's October survey expected annual inflation of 29.6% at the end of 2026 and 23.3% at the end of 2027.
The CBRT's policy rate
At 36%, the one-week repo rate pays a high return for holding liras. Whether that return beats inflation decides whether investors keep holding the currency.
Reserves and intervention
The central bank manages the pace of the lira's fall with its reserves, so moves are usually steady rather than sudden, with rare exceptions in past crises.
Energy imports
Türkiye buys most of its oil and gas abroad, so higher energy prices widen the current account deficit and add pressure on the lira.
| Central bank | Rate | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Central Bank of the Republic of Türkiye | 36% (one-week repo rate) | since 23 Oct 2026 |
| US Federal Reserve | 3.875% (federal funds target range 3.75%–4.00% (midpoint used)) | held 28 Oct 2026 |
Next rate decisions are on our economic calendar.
Method
| Rates | ECB euro reference rates, one per working day since 3 January 2005, crossed to the US dollar (EUR/TRY ÷ EUR/USD). |
| Ranges | For each target date, the log change over the same number of days from every start day in the history; 5th, 16th, 50th, 84th and 95th percentiles applied to today's rate. |
| Rate gap | Today's rate × ((1 + CBRT rate) ÷ (1 + Fed rate)) ^ years. |
| Odds | Share of those windows ending at or above each level. |
| Updates | Monthly, and after each CBRT or Fed decision. |
Source: ECB Data Portal, EXR.D.TRY.EUR.SP00.A and EXR.D.USD.EUR.SP00.A.
Cite this page
Free to use with a credit and link (CC BY 4.0).
FX Recap, "USD/TRY forecast 2026–2030", updated 9 November 2026, https://fxrecap.com/forex-news/currency-forecast/usd-try
Jawad Bin GoniPR & Reporter, FX Recap[email protected]
USD/TRY forecast: common questions
What will USD/TRY be in 2030?
Nobody knows, and any single number for 2030 is a guess. What can be measured: if the next four years look like a typical four-year stretch since 2005, USD/TRY would end 2030 between 62.20 and 196.06 two times in three, and between 54.42 and 247.86 19 times in 20. With today's policy rates held, the rate-gap path ends 2030 at 153.21.
What is the USD/TRY forecast for 2027?
For the end of 2027 the historical range is 45.24 to 88.26 (95%), with a middle outcome of 60.55, and the rate-gap path is 68.21. The CBRT, Survey of Market Participants (October 2026, conducted 12–14 Oct) modified mean is 59.26.
Will USD/TRY reach 150?
In 26% of past stretches the length of today-to-2030, a move like history's would take USD/TRY to 150 or higher by the end of 2030, starting from 50.14. By the end of 2027 the share is 0% or less. The table "Will it reach these levels?" shows the shares for other round numbers.
Could the lira get stronger from here?
It can, but on history it is the less common outcome. In 2% of past stretches the length of today-to-2030, USD/TRY ended lower than it started, which would mean a stronger lira. USD/TRY's lowest ECB reference rate since 2005 was 1.15 on 15 January 2008.
Will the lira get stronger or weaker?
Over the past 21 years the US dollar gained against the lira in 98% of all stretches the length of today-to-2030, on ECB data. Past patterns can break: a change in inflation, interest rates or politics can turn the trend. This page shows ranges, not a direction call.
Why does a higher interest rate in Türkiye point to a weaker lira?
Forward prices have to balance the interest earned in each currency. If CBRT rates are higher than Fed rates, the forward price of USD/TRY sits above today's rate, otherwise a trader could borrow one currency, hold the other and lock in a riskless profit. That is why the rate-gap path rises over time. It is a pricing rule, not a forecast: high-yield currencies often hold up better than the path suggests.
Where do these figures come from?
Exchange rates are the ECB's euro reference rates, crossed to the US dollar (EUR/TRY ÷ EUR/USD). Policy rates come from the Central Bank of the Republic of Türkiye and the US Federal Reserve. Survey figures come from the CBRT, Survey of Market Participants (October 2026, conducted 12–14 Oct). The ranges are FX Recap's own calculation, and every figure is in the free CSV.
How volatile is USD/TRY?
Over the last 12 months USD/TRY moved with an annualised volatility of 1.5% on daily ECB rates, against 15.8% over the whole history since 2005. Its largest one-day rise was +14.01% on 13 August 2018, and its largest one-day fall −26.74% on 21 December 2021.
Is there a best month for the lira?
On average since 2005, April has been the lira's best month against the US dollar (USD/TRY +0.13% on average) and August its worst (+3.11%). The averages are small next to normal monthly swings, so they are not a reliable trading pattern.
More forecasts: EUR/PLN · USD/BRL · USD/MXN · EUR/HUF · USD/INR · all currency forecasts
Risk warning. Forex and CFD trading carries a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. Historical ranges, rate-gap paths and surveys do not predict future prices. This page is information, not financial advice.