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USD/MXN history and ranges to 2030
Month-end rates for the last 10 years, then the historical range for each year-end to 2030 and the rate-gap path, with the survey figures.
See the table →USD/MXN Forecast 2026–2030
USD/MXN is the number of pesos one US dollar buys. A higher rate means a weaker peso. It was 18.6137 on 9 November 2026. Below: what 18 years of ECB history, today's interest rates and the official survey of economists say about where it could be from 2027 to 2030. Ranges, not a price target.
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USD/MXN outlook in brief
Today18.61379 November 2026 · +0.3% in a year
End of 202716.90 – 21.9268% historical range · middle 18.98
End of 203016.87 – 26.0168% historical range · middle 20.17
Economists19.28median, 2028 · Banco de México
The peso has lost 0.3% of its value against the US dollar in the past year and lost 0.3% in ten years, while USD/MXN itself moved +0.3% over the ten years (0.0% a year). Since 2008 the US dollar has gained against the peso in 66% of stretches as long as today-to-2030. The Banxico's rate is 2.38 points above the Fed's, which tilts the rate-gap path higher.
USD/MXN at each year-end to 2030
Ranges from 18 years of ECB history, the rate-gap path with today's policy rates held, and the median from the Banco de México, Survey of Private Sector Economists (October 2026).
| Year-end | 95% range | 68% range | Middle | Rate gap | Survey |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 17.58 – 20.21 | 17.98 – 19.41 | 18.57 | 18.67 | 18.39 |
| 2027 | 16.03 – 23.51 | 16.90 – 21.92 | 18.98 | 19.10 | 18.64 |
| 2028 | 15.69 – 25.84 | 17.18 – 22.57 | 19.40 | 19.54 | 19.28 |
| 2029 | 15.45 – 26.98 | 17.54 – 23.94 | 19.72 | 19.99 | – |
| 2030 | 15.80 – 27.89 | 16.87 – 26.01 | 20.17 | 20.44 | – |
Starting point 18.6137 (9 November 2026). 3,769 overlapping windows for 2030.
USD/MXN forecast by month, next 12 months
Month-end ranges from history, and the rate-gap path.
| Month-end | 68% range | Middle | Rate gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 2026 | 18.18 – 19.10 | 18.59 | 18.64 |
| Dec 2026 | 17.98 – 19.41 | 18.57 | 18.67 |
| Jan 2027 | 17.80 – 19.71 | 18.53 | 18.71 |
| Feb 2027 | 17.68 – 19.92 | 18.55 | 18.74 |
| Mar 2027 | 17.56 – 20.11 | 18.59 | 18.78 |
| Apr 2027 | 17.48 – 20.39 | 18.63 | 18.81 |
| May 2027 | 17.42 – 20.75 | 18.64 | 18.85 |
| Jun 2027 | 17.37 – 21.10 | 18.66 | 18.88 |
| Jul 2027 | 17.26 – 21.19 | 18.69 | 18.92 |
| Aug 2027 | 17.17 – 21.30 | 18.69 | 18.96 |
| Sep 2027 | 17.15 – 21.55 | 18.72 | 18.99 |
| Oct 2027 | 17.06 – 21.76 | 18.83 | 19.03 |
Will USD/MXN reach these levels?
Share of past stretches of the same length in which USD/MXN, starting from 18.6137, would end at or above each level.
| Level | End of 2027 | End of 2030 |
|---|---|---|
| 16.0 | over 95% | |
| 18.0 | 66% | |
| 20.0 | 32% | |
| 22.0 | 15% | |
| 24.0 | under 5% | |
| 26.0 | under 5% |
History, not probability: a crisis or a policy change can take USD/MXN outside every level here.
5 figures to quote
USD/MXN was 18.6137 on 9 November 2026, +0.3% on a year earlier, so the peso weakened against the US dollar.
Source: ECB euro reference ratesIn 95% of all 3,769 past stretches of the same length since 2008, a move like history's would leave USD/MXN between 15.80 and 27.89 at the end of 2030; the middle outcome is 20.17.
Source: FX Recap calculation on ECB data since 2008With today's policy rates held to 2030 (Banxico 6.25%, Fed 3.875%), the rate-gap path puts USD/MXN at 20.44 at the end of 2030. That is roughly where forward contracts price the pair, not a prediction.
Source: Banco de México; US Federal Reserve; FX Recap calculationEconomists in the Banco de México, Survey of Private Sector Economists (October 2026) expect end-of-year USD/MXN of 18.39 (2026), 18.64 (2027), 19.28 (2028) (median, 40 analysis groups).
Source: Banco de México, Survey of Private Sector Economists (October 2026), 3 November 2026USD/MXN's highest ECB reference rate since 2008 was 25.1039 on 6 April 2020; the lowest was 9.9006 on 5 August 2008.
Source: ECB euro reference rates
How to read the three numbers
Historical range
Every stretch of the same length in the ECB's history since 2008, applied to today's 18.6137. Two in three end 2030 between 16.87 and 26.01; nineteen in twenty between 15.80 and 27.89. A crisis or policy change can break the pattern.
Rate-gap path
The Banco de México's overnight interbank target rate is 6.25% and the US Federal Reserve's is 3.875%, so the Banxico pays 2.38 points more than the Fed. Forward contracts are priced so the extra interest is cancelled by the exchange rate: 20.44 by end-2030 if rates never change, which they will.
Survey
The Banco de México, Survey of Private Sector Economists (October 2026) (3 November 2026) asked 40 analysis groups for their end-of-year USD/MXN. Surveys move with the latest rate, so read them as a snapshot of opinion.
None of these is a signal to buy or sell. A leveraged position can lose more in a day than these ranges move in a month. Our position size calculator shows what a move costs at a given size, and the currency volatility index compares how far the peso moves each week with other currencies.
USD/MXN history and records
ECB reference rates. A positive change means the peso weakened against the US dollar.
| Year | Year-end | Change |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 so far | 18.6137 | +3.6% |
| 2025 | 17.9728 | −13.4% |
| 2024 | 20.7435 | +22.4% |
| 2023 | 16.9440 | −13.3% |
| 2022 | 19.5537 | −4.3% |
| 2021 | 20.4342 | +2.7% |
| 2020 | 19.8973 | +5.3% |
| 2019 | 18.8893 | −3.8% |
| 2018 | 19.6438 | −0.4% |
| 2017 | 19.7292 | −4.5% |
| 2016 | 20.6545 | +18.9% |
| Highest since 2008 | 25.1039 6 Apr 2020 |
| Lowest since 2008 | 9.9006 5 Aug 2008 |
| Last 5 years | 16.3125 to 21.8783 |
| Up years | 8 of 17 full years |
| Biggest yearly rises | 2024 +22.4% · 2016 +18.9% · 2015 +18.1% |
| Biggest yearly falls | 2025 −13.4% · 2023 −13.3% · 2012 −6.6% |
| Biggest 12-month rise | +42.9% 6 Mar 2008 – 6 Mar 2009 |
| Biggest 12-month fall | −20.1% 24 Apr 2020 – 23 Apr 2021 |
| Biggest one-day moves | +11.89% 10 Oct 2008 · −7.05% 13 Oct 2008 |
| Volatility | 8.2% last 12 months · 13.6% since 2008 |
| 5 and 10 years | −8.8% · +0.3% |
USD/MXN seasonality: average move by month
Average month-end to month-end change since 2008, and how often USD/MXN rose in that month. April has been the peso's best month on average, August its worst.
Jan−0.62%up 44% of years
Feb−0.06%up 37% of years
Mar−0.57%up 26% of years
Apr−0.63%up 32% of years
May+0.71%up 47% of years
Jun+0.17%up 53% of years
Jul−0.55%up 42% of years
Aug+1.64%up 68% of years
Sep+1.47%up 63% of years
Oct+0.77%up 42% of years
Nov+0.75%up 61% of years
Dec+0.65%up 61% of years
Small averages next to normal monthly swings: not a reliable trading pattern.
What could push USD/MXN up or down
Trade with the United States
The US buys most of Mexico's exports, so US growth, tariffs and the trade agreement between the two countries move the peso more than anything else.
Banxico's rate
Banxico cut its target rate to 6.25% on 5 November 2026. A narrower gap over US rates makes the peso less attractive for carry trades.
Remittances and investment
Money sent home by Mexicans working in the US and factories moving closer to the US market both bring steady dollar inflows.
Liquidity
The peso is one of the most traded emerging-market currencies, so it is often sold first when global markets turn risk-averse and bought first when they recover.
| Central bank | Rate | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Banco de México | 6.25% (overnight interbank target rate) | cut 25bp on 5 Nov 2026 |
| US Federal Reserve | 3.875% (federal funds target range 3.75%–4.00% (midpoint used)) | held 28 Oct 2026 |
Next rate decisions are on our economic calendar.
Method
| Rates | ECB euro reference rates, one per working day since 2 January 2008, crossed to the US dollar (EUR/MXN ÷ EUR/USD). |
| Ranges | For each target date, the log change over the same number of days from every start day in the history; 5th, 16th, 50th, 84th and 95th percentiles applied to today's rate. |
| Rate gap | Today's rate × ((1 + Banxico rate) ÷ (1 + Fed rate)) ^ years. |
| Odds | Share of those windows ending at or above each level. |
| Updates | Monthly, and after each Banxico or Fed decision. |
Source: ECB Data Portal, EXR.D.MXN.EUR.SP00.A and EXR.D.USD.EUR.SP00.A.
Cite this page
Free to use with a credit and link (CC BY 4.0).
FX Recap, "USD/MXN forecast 2026–2030", updated 9 November 2026, https://fxrecap.com/forex-news/currency-forecast/usd-mxn
Jawad Bin GoniPR & Reporter, FX Recap[email protected]
USD/MXN forecast: common questions
What will USD/MXN be in 2030?
Nobody knows, and any single number for 2030 is a guess. What can be measured: if the next four years look like a typical four-year stretch since 2008, USD/MXN would end 2030 between 16.87 and 26.01 two times in three, and between 15.80 and 27.89 19 times in 20. With today's policy rates held, the rate-gap path ends 2030 at 20.44.
What is the USD/MXN forecast for 2027?
For the end of 2027 the historical range is 16.03 to 23.51 (95%), with a middle outcome of 18.98, and the rate-gap path is 19.10. The Banco de México, Survey of Private Sector Economists (October 2026) median is 18.6400.
Will USD/MXN reach 24.0?
In 27% of past stretches the length of today-to-2030, a move like history's would take USD/MXN to 24.0 or higher by the end of 2030, starting from 18.6137. By the end of 2027 the share is 0% or less. The table "Will it reach these levels?" shows the shares for other round numbers.
Could the peso get stronger from here?
It can, but on history it is the less common outcome. In 34% of past stretches the length of today-to-2030, USD/MXN ended lower than it started, which would mean a stronger peso. USD/MXN's lowest ECB reference rate since 2008 was 9.9006 on 5 August 2008.
Will the peso get stronger or weaker?
Over the past 18 years the US dollar gained against the peso in 66% of all stretches the length of today-to-2030, on ECB data. Past patterns can break: a change in inflation, interest rates or politics can turn the trend. This page shows ranges, not a direction call.
Why does a higher interest rate in Mexico point to a weaker peso?
Forward prices have to balance the interest earned in each currency. If Banxico rates are higher than Fed rates, the forward price of USD/MXN sits above today's rate, otherwise a trader could borrow one currency, hold the other and lock in a riskless profit. That is why the rate-gap path rises over time. It is a pricing rule, not a forecast: high-yield currencies often hold up better than the path suggests.
Where do these figures come from?
Exchange rates are the ECB's euro reference rates, crossed to the US dollar (EUR/MXN ÷ EUR/USD). Policy rates come from the Banco de México and the US Federal Reserve. Survey figures come from the Banco de México, Survey of Private Sector Economists (October 2026). The ranges are FX Recap's own calculation, and every figure is in the free CSV.
How volatile is USD/MXN?
Over the last 12 months USD/MXN moved with an annualised volatility of 8.2% on daily ECB rates, against 13.6% over the whole history since 2008. Its largest one-day rise was +11.89% on 10 October 2008, and its largest one-day fall −7.05% on 13 October 2008.
Is there a best month for the peso?
On average since 2008, April has been the peso's best month against the US dollar (USD/MXN −0.63% on average) and August its worst (+1.64%). The averages are small next to normal monthly swings, so they are not a reliable trading pattern.
More forecasts: EUR/PLN · USD/TRY · USD/BRL · EUR/HUF · USD/INR · all currency forecasts
Risk warning. Forex and CFD trading carries a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. Historical ranges, rate-gap paths and surveys do not predict future prices. This page is information, not financial advice.