USD/CAD worked out at 1.3966 on Thursday 5 November, using the ECB's euro reference rates, 31 pips above Wednesday's 1.3935, the lowest rate of the last 20 working days. The pair sits below its 20-day average (1.4071), 50-day (1.4036) and 100-day (1.4045), and each bounce since the 8 and 12 October peak of 1.4262 has stopped lower. The 14-day relative strength index (RSI) on the reference rates is about 38.

The Bank of Canada's rate is 2.50% after its 28 October rise, and Canadian and US jobs data both come out today.

USD/CAD at a Glance

USD/CAD · US Dollar / Canadian Dollar
1.3966 (ECB-derived, 5 Nov)+31 pips (+0.22%)
6 November 2026, ECB rates of 5 Nov, gold 03:58 UTC · change vs previous reference rate
Today's biasBearish
BearishNeutralBullish
Bearish below 1.4000
7-day range1.3935 to 1.4047112 pips, daily reference rates
RSI (14-day)38 · Neutral zone
3070
Moving averages
20-day1.4071 ▼
50-day1.4036 ▼
100-day1.4045 ▼
Price below all three
20-day range1.3935 to 1.4262
LowHigh

1Up 31 pips to 1.3966 from the 20-day low.

2Below the 20, 50 and 100-day averages.

3Canadian and US jobs data at 13:30 UTC.

Analysis, not financial advice. Check live quotes before trading.

USD/CAD Live Chart and Technical Meter

Both widgets update in real time, so they may differ from the levels written at ECB rates of 5 Nov, gold 03:58 UTC.

USD/CAD live chart

US Dollar / Canadian Dollar, real-time price
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USD/CAD technical meter

Live buy/sell summary of moving averages and oscillators
Live
Technical summary by TradingView, updated live. A reading of indicators, not a trade signal or advice.

Key Support and Resistance Levels

Distance is measured from the price at ECB rates of 5 Nov, gold 03:58 UTC.

R 31.4070+104 pips20-day average (1.4071)
R 21.4045+79 pips100-day and 50-day averages (1.4045, 1.4036) and the 28 October swing high (1.4047)
R 11.4000+34 pipsRound number and the old floor of 23 and 29 October (1.3995, 1.3996)
Now1.3966 (ECB-derived, 5 Nov)CurrentPrice at the time of writing
S 11.3935−31 pips4 November rate (1.3935), the 20-day low
S 21.3890−76 pips31 August, 1 September and 14 September rates (1.3886 to 1.3888)
S 31.3820−146 pips7 September swing high (1.3820) and the 10 September rate (1.3816)

USD/CAD Trading Plan Today

Three setups for the days ahead: sell a rally into 1.3990 to 1.4000 with a stop above 1.4050, sell a confirmed close below 1.3930, or buy only a close above 1.4050. Canada's Labour Force Survey and the US jobs report both come out at 13:30 UTC today, so expect sharp swings at that time.

Sell

Sell the 1.4000 rally

Entry
1.3990–1.4000
Stop
1.4050
TP 1
1.3935
TP 2
1.3890
Risk : reward1:0.9–2.2
Possible gain55–110 pips
Sell

Sell the breakdown

Entry
Below 1.3930 (close)
Stop
1.3975
TP 1
1.3890
TP 2
1.3820
Risk : reward1:0.9–2.4
Possible gain40–110 pips
Buy

Buy a trend break

Entry
Above 1.4050 (close)
Stop
1.3995
TP 1
1.4070
TP 2
1.4160
Risk : reward1:0.4–2.0
Possible gain20–110 pips

USD/CAD tends to move most during the New York session, when Canadian and US data come out, often at the same time.

Keep each trade's risk to 1% to 2% of your account, and work out the size with the position size calculator before you enter. The levels come from daily reference rates, so allow a few pips either side.

Show the setups as a table
Market BiasEntry ZoneStop LossTake Profit 1Take Profit 2Risk RewardPossible Gain (pips)
Bearish1.3990–1.40001.40501.39351.38901:0.9–2.255–110
BearishBelow 1.3930 (close)1.39751.38901.38201:0.9–2.440–110
BullishAbove 1.4050 (close)1.39951.40701.41601:0.4–2.020–110

USD/CAD Price Outlook: Bull and Bear Cases

Bearish scenario

A strong Canadian jobs report would back the Bank of Canada's warning that it may need to raise rates again. A close below 1.3930 would extend the downtrend to 1.3890, then 1.3820.

Bullish scenario

Strong US payrolls and weak Canadian jobs could lift the dollar. A close above 1.4050 would clear the 50 and 100-day averages and open 1.4070, then 1.4160.

USD/CAD Market Structure and Indicators

20-day average1.4071Price below by 105 pips
50-day average1.4036Price below by 70 pips
100-day average1.4045Price below by 79 pips
14-day RSI38Between 30 and 70

On the reference rates, USD/CAD climbed from 1.3768 on 9 September to 1.4262 on 8 and 12 October, the high of the last 60 working days. It has been falling since: 1.4161 on 16 October, 1.3995 on 23 October, and 1.3935 on 4 November, the lowest rate of the last 20 working days. The rebounds have each topped out lower, at 1.4047 on 28 October and 1.3975 on 3 November.

That is a downtrend of lower highs and lower lows, and the pair now sits below all three moving averages with the RSI near 38. A close above 1.4000 would be the first sign of a turn and bring the averages around 1.4045 into view; a close under 1.3930 would open 1.3890.

Last 7 Days Recap

1.40471.39911.3935Wed28 OctThu29 OctFri30 OctMon2 NovTue3 NovWed4 NovThu5 Nov

USD/CAD fell 57 pips over the last seven working days on the reference rates, from 1.4023 to 1.3966, with four rises and three falls. The 28 October rate of 1.4047 was set before the Bank of Canada announced its rise later that day; the next day's 51-pip fall was the largest move of the period. A 40-pip drop took the pair to 1.3935 on Wednesday before Thursday's 31-pip rebound.

DateReference rateChange
Wed 28 Oct1.4047+24 pips (+0.17%)
Thu 29 Oct1.3996−51 pips (−0.36%)
Fri 30 Oct1.3969−27 pips (−0.19%)
Mon 2 Nov1.3974+5 pips (+0.04%)
Tue 3 Nov1.3975+1 pips (+0.01%)
Wed 4 Nov1.3935−40 pips (−0.29%)
Thu 5 Nov1.3966+31 pips (+0.22%)
7-day range1.3935 to 1.4047−57 pips (−0.41%)
Last 7 working days. Derived from ECB euro reference rates, set around 14:15 CET each working day; USD/CAD = EUR/CAD ÷ EUR/USD. Change is from the previous working day's rate.

Today’s Economic Calendar and News

  • Canada Labour Force Survey and US jobs reportHigh impact
  • US CPI (October) and 10-year auctionHigh impact
  • Bank of Canada decisionHigh impact

Thursday brought the Bank of England's first rate rise of this energy shock: Bank Rate went to 4% from 3.75% by eight votes to one, with one member wanting 4.25%, and the Bank now expects UK inflation to reach around 5% by the middle of next year. US data followed, with the Bureau of Labor Statistics reporting third-quarter productivity up 3.6% at an annual rate and unit labour costs down 0.7%. On the Treasury's par curve the 2-year yield fell to 4.46% from 4.58% and the 10-year to 4.84% from 4.90%. Even so, the dollar was firmer across the board on the reference rates, which were set at about 13:15 UTC, before the US figures. Spot gold was $4,045.50 at 03:58 UTC on Friday (gold-api.com), down from $4,138.40 a day earlier. The US October jobs report comes out at 13:30 UTC today. Currency prices on this page are European Central Bank (ECB) reference rates from Thursday 5 November; the live chart shows where the market trades now. For the loonie, our Bank of Canada decision story covers the 28 October rise to 2.50%, the bank's first since July 2023, and our US jobs report story covers today's release on the other side of the pair. The Bank of Canada's rate is 2.50%, against a Fed range of 3.75% to 4.00%.

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Geopolitical Factors and Market Impact

Oil is the main outside force on the Canadian dollar. The Bank of Canada said persistently high oil prices have pushed Canadian inflation to around 3%, which is why it raised rates. A sharp fall in oil or in global stock markets would tend to weaken the loonie and lift USD/CAD.

Final Outlook and Analyst’s Note

Bottom line

USD/CAD is in a downtrend at 1.3966, below every moving average and 31 pips above its 20-day low. The bias is bearish below 1.4000: sell a rally to 1.3990 to 1.4000, sell a close under 1.3930, and turn bullish only on a close above 1.4050.

The loonie has gained ground since the Bank of Canada's rise, and every bounce in USD/CAD has been sold. Two jobs reports at the same minute today could break the pattern in either direction.

“I would sell a rally into 1.3990 to 1.4000 with a stop above 1.4050, looking for 1.3935. A close above 1.4050 would change my mind.”

Tanbir Habib Riyad, Forex & Crypto Analyst, FX Recap

Before You Trade: Checklist and Tools

  • Confirm the bias: Bearish below 1.4000. Trade with it unless price closes beyond the levels that cancel it.
  • Mark the key levels on your own chart: resistance 1.4000 · 1.4045 · 1.4070, support 1.3935 · 1.3890 · 1.3820.
  • Note the event times: Canada Labour Force Survey and US jobs report (fri 6 nov), US CPI (October) and 10-year auction (tue 10 nov), Bank of Canada decision (wed 9 dec). Spreads often widen around Fri 6 Nov UTC.
  • Place the stop loss before you enter, at the level shown on the setup card, and never move it further away.
  • Size the position so a stop-out costs no more than 1% to 2% of your account.
  • Check your own chart and your state of mind with Chart Pre-Flight before you enter.
Position size calculatorLots for your riskPip calculatorValue of each pipRisk-reward calculatorCheck the ratioChart Pre-FlightCheck your own chart

Other markets today

EUR/USD Neutral1.1224 (ECB, 5 Nov) · Neutral between 1.1180 and 1.1270GBP/USD Bullish1.3459 (ECB-derived, 5 Nov) · Bullish above 1.3400Gold Neutral$4,045 (spot, 03:58 UTC) · Neutral between $4,000 and $4,140USD/JPY Neutral158.46 (ECB-derived, 5 Nov) · Neutral to bullish above 157.95AUD/USD Neutral0.7001 (ECB-derived, 5 Nov) · Neutral between 0.6985 and 0.7035USD/CHF Bearish0.8179 (ECB-derived, 5 Nov) · Bearish below 0.8230

Disclaimer: this analysis is for educational purposes only and is not financial advice. Forex trading carries a high risk of losing money quickly. Prices quoted are as of 6 November 2026, ECB rates of 5 Nov, gold 03:58 UTC.

Cite this guide

FX Recap, "USD/CAD Analysis Today: Loonie Holds Near 1.3966, Below Every Average", updated 6 November 2026, https://fxrecap.com/forex-news/technical-analysis/usd-cad-analysis-today

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