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The day's market-moving releases, written up from the official source: central banks, inflation, jobs and growth, plus what they mean for the major pairs.
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Week Ahead: Five Central Bank Decisions in Three Days, Plus US GDP and Australian CPI
The RBNZ, Bank of Canada, Fed, ECB and Bank of Japan all decide between Wednesday and Friday, with US growth and inflation data in the middle.
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UK Retail Sales Slip 0.4% in September as Warm Weather Hits Clothing, but the Quarter Grows
New Zealand Inflation Eases to 3.7% as Petrol Falls, but Domestic Prices Stay Firm
US 20-Year Bond Sale Clears at 5.469%, the Highest Since the Maturity Returned in 2020
Bank of Korea Holds Its Rate at 3.00% but Keeps Further Rises on the Table
UK Inflation Jumps to 3.5% in September as Fuel Prices Hit a Four-Year High
Japan's Trade Deficit Narrowed to ¥537 Billion in September as Chip Exports JumpedAlso today
- Gold Slips Below $4,000 After Its Worst Week Since June, Even as Real Yields Fall24 October 2026
- US 10-Year Yield Drops to 4.96%, Its Biggest One-Day Fall Since August 202423 October 2026
- Japan's Core Inflation Jumps to 2.1% in September, a Week Before the Bank of Japan Decides23 October 2026
Live Market pulse
- EUR/USD1.1218Analysis
- GBP/USD1.3394Analysis
- USD/JPY156.91Analysis
- Gold$4,016Analysis
- AUD/USD0.7022Analysis
- Silver–Analysis
Prices at 06:30 UTC, 23 October 2026. Updating live…
Daily analysis
Where the majors stand
Levels, bias and trade plans, refreshed every trading day. Last update 23 October 2026.
EUR/USD↓ Bearish1.1218Trend is down: price sits below the 50 and 100-day averages.Full analysis →GBP/USD↑ Bullish1.3394New high at 1.3418 on Thursday, the best since 16 September.Full analysis →Gold↓ Bearish$4,016Thursday's 2.5% drop broke the $4,075 twin lows.Full analysis →USD/JPY↓ Bearish156.91A 160-pip drop on Thursday broke the 157.50 range floor.Full analysis →AUD/USD→ Neutral0.7022Highs on Wednesday and Thursday both stopped at 0.7038.Full analysis →
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Every story, day by day
Tuesday 20 October
UK Unemployment Falls to 4.7% as Vacancies Drop and Total Pay Growth SlowsMore people found work over the summer, yet firms are advertising fewer jobs and bonuses are shrinking, a mixed message for the Bank of England.
Canada's Inflation Rose to 3.1% in September on Gasoline, but Core Measures EasedPump prices pushed the headline up, yet the Bank of Canada's preferred gauges cooled, leaving its 28 October decision finely balanced.
US Housing Starts Fell 5.2% in September as Builders Slowed Ahead of the FedBuilders broke ground on fewer homes while permits held near 1.4 million, a soft signal from a sector exposed to 5% Treasury yields.Monday 19 October
China's Economy Grew 4.5% in the Third Quarter as Exports Surged and Investment FellGrowth picked up from 4.3% in the spring, but shoppers stayed cautious and investment kept shrinking, a split that matters for the Australian dollar.
Lagarde Says the Energy Shock Is Too Large to Look Through, but Keeps a Measured ToneIn a written statement to the IMF on Saturday, the ECB President flagged upside inflation risks and tighter financing ahead of the 29 October decision.
Canada's September Inflation Is Due Today: What the Bank of Canada Will Look ForGasoline drove August's 3.0% rate. Today's figure shows whether high oil prices are spreading into rent, food and services before 28 October.Sunday 18 October
IMF Closes Bangkok Meetings With an Inflation Warning: Central Banks Told to Stay FirmFinance ministers and central bank chiefs agreed in Bangkok that price stability comes first, as the IMF sees world inflation rising to 4.7% this year.
Hedge Funds Added Euro and Yen Shorts Before US Inflation Data, CFTC Figures ShowLeveraged funds raised bets against the euro by 54% in the week to 13 October, then watched EUR/USD climb as Treasury yields fell after the CPI report.Saturday 17 October
Week Ahead: UK Inflation and Jobs, China GDP and Canada CPI Before Rate WeekSix official releases from Monday to Friday, led by UK inflation on Wednesday, will set the tone for five rate decisions due from 28 October.
Dollar Ends the Week Lower as Yields Slide, Even With US Import Prices Up 8.1%The dollar index lost 0.4% as 10-year Treasury yields fell to 5.09%, while US crude jumped almost 8% and import costs kept rising.Friday 16 October
US Producer Prices Jump 1.3%, the Biggest Rise Since 2022, Yet Yields FallWholesale energy prices rose 10.8% in September and annual PPI hit 6.3%. The dollar barely reacted as 10-year Treasury yields dropped to 5.10%.
US Retail Sales Rise 0.8% in September, but Gas Stations Do the Heavy LiftingGas station receipts jumped 6.4% while spending outside autos and fuel grew only 0.2%, a soft signal for the dollar two weeks before the Fed meets.
UK Economy Grows 0.1% in August as Services Stall and Factories Pick UpFactory output rose 1.2% while services were flat. Three-month growth hit 0.7%, and the pound edged up to 1.3280 ahead of the Bank of England's November call.Thursday 15 October
US Inflation Rises to 3.7% on Gasoline, but the Dollar Gives Back Its JumpSeptember CPI rose 0.6% as gasoline jumped 9.1%. The dollar index spiked to 102.9, then gave it all back while core inflation held at 0.3%.
Fed Beige Book: Oil Costs Spread Through Prices While Hiring StallsHigher oil prices showed up in every district report, three districts saw robust price growth and most saw flat jobs, ahead of the 28 October decision.
Australian Employment Falls 39,300 as the Jobless Rate Edges Up to 4.7%Part-time jobs dropped 73,700 in September while full-time work grew. AUD/USD slipped below 0.6960 as traders weighed the RBA's next move in November.
Gold Climbs Back Toward $4,180 After a CPI Sell-Off to $4,095Gold futures lost $67 within hours of the hot US inflation report, then recovered it all overnight. Spot gold held near $4,157 early on Thursday.Monday 12 October
Dollar Holds Near 18-Month High as Markets Brace for US Inflation DataThe dollar index held near 102.2 on Monday, close to last week's 18-month peak, as oil-supply attacks in the Gulf and Wednesday's US CPI report kept traders cautious. The euro has fallen for five straight weeks.
Gold Rebounds Toward $4,200 as Long-Dated Treasury Yields EaseGold futures gained $83 in two sessions to close Friday at $4,216 as the 30-year Treasury yield slipped from its 2026 high. Spot gold held near $4,196 on Monday ahead of US inflation data.Thursday 8 October
Fed Minutes: Most Officials See Another Rate Hike by Year EndMinutes of the Fed's 15-16 September meeting, released on 7 October, show most officials expect another rate increase by year end. The dollar held near 102.3 and gold fell to a two-month low.
RBI Raises Repo Rate to 5.50%, Its First Hike Since February 2023The Reserve Bank of India lifted its repo rate by 25 basis points to 5.50% on 7 October and moved to a stance of calibrated tightening, citing oil prices and the West Asia conflict. USD/INR traded near 96.8.Friday 2 October
US Dollar Eases From 18-Month High as September Jobs DisappointUS employers added just 29,000 jobs in September and unemployment rose to 4.2%, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported. The Dollar Index, which hit 102.20 on Thursday, eased after the data.
US 10-Year Treasury Yield Breaks Its 2007 Peak: What It Means for ForexThe 10-year yield rose as high as 5.33% on Thursday, past its 2007 high, and the US Treasury's official close was 5.24%. Higher US yields are the main fuel behind this autumn's dollar rally.
Eurozone Inflation Jumps to 3.8% in September, Yet the Euro Stays Near 1.12Eurostat's flash estimate beat the 3.6% forecast, driven by an 18.8% surge in energy prices. EUR/USD barely reacted, held down by French debt worries and a stronger dollar.
Japanese Yen Bounces as Tokyo Inflation Hits 2.7% and BoJ Hike Talk GrowsUSD/JPY slipped back under 158.00 after Tokyo core inflation beat forecasts and the Bank of Japan's summary of opinions showed members open to faster hikes. Intervention risk near 160 remains.
Pound Falls to Lowest Since June as 30-Year Gilt Yield Tops 6%GBP/USD dipped below 1.3200 this week as UK borrowing costs hit their highest since 1998 and a Bank of England member pushed back on more hikes. The 28 October Budget now looms over sterling.No stories with that tag yet. Try another market.
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