IC Markets
Gold's run through 2026 to records above $4,000, and briefly toward $4,400 in the strongest stretch, was the kind of move that gets talked about for years. It also produced two very different sets of stories: traders who caught a chunk of it with a trailing stop and a plan, and traders who shorted it repeatedly on the way up because it looked overextended and lost account after account. This is one of the first kind, and the trade is worth breaking down because the skill in it was almost entirely in the exit, not the entry.
The trader was in Bangkok, running a $6,000 account, and had been trading gold and USD/JPY for about two years. They were not a gold bull by conviction. They took the trade because the trend was up, the pullbacks were shallow, and their rule was to trade with the trend until it clearly broke.
The entry
Gold was around $3,650 and had pulled back to a rising trendline and a prior area of support after a push to $3,720. The trader went long at $3,655 with a stop at $3,590, a 65-dollar stop. On a $6,000 account risking one per cent, $60, that put the position at roughly 0.09 lots, about $9 per pip in gold terms, or roughly $0.90 per 10 cents. A conservative size, because the stop was wide.
There was nothing special about the entry. It was a with-trend pullback buy at support, the kind of setup that appears dozens of times in a strong uptrend. If the trend had failed there, it would have been a one-per-cent loss and forgotten. The entry did not need to be precise because the plan did not depend on it.
| Account | $6,000 |
|---|---|
| Entry | Gold long at $3,655 |
| Initial stop | $3,590 (65-dollar risk) |
| Position size | ~0.09 lots (~$60 risk, 1%) |
| Stop management | Trailed below each higher swing low |
| Exit | $4,180, on a trailed-stop hit after a sharp pullback |
| Move captured | ~$525 per ounce |
| Profit | ~$4,700 on the position (~78% of the account) |
The trailing stop
This is where the trade was made. As gold climbed, the trader moved the stop up to sit just below each new higher swing low on the daily chart. When gold pushed to $3,800 and pulled back to $3,720, the stop went to $3,690, locking in a small gain and making the trade risk-free. When it ran to $4,000 and consolidated near $3,920, the stop went to $3,890. Each time, the stop moved only after a clear higher low formed, never pre-emptively.
The trader resisted two temptations the whole way up. First, taking profit early because the gain was already large in dollar terms. Every level from $3,800 onward, the position was showing more than a $1,000 profit, and the urge to bank it was constant. Second, adding to the position as it ran, which would have increased the risk and turned a clean trade into a leveraged bet. They did neither. Same size, trailing stop, let it work.
Anan said the hardest day was when gold hit $4,000 and every headline was about a record. He was up more than $3,000 on one position, which was half his account, and every instinct said to take it. His rule was that he only exits on a stop or a clear trend break, and neither had happened, so he did nothing. When it finally pulled back sharply from $4,200 and hit his trailed stop at $4,180, he was almost relieved. He booked about $4,700. He is clear that if the pullback had come at $3,900 instead, he would have made a fraction of that, and that the size of the win was the market's doing, not his.
What was skill and what was timing
The skill: sizing the position to a one-per-cent risk so a failed entry cost nothing meaningful, trailing the stop mechanically below higher lows rather than guessing tops, and not interfering with a working trade by taking profit early or adding. Those are repeatable. The trader would do the same thing on the next strong trend and it would work again, though probably for a smaller move.
The timing: gold happened to run $525 without a pullback deep enough to hit a sensibly trailed stop. That is unusual. Most trends give the trailing stop a reason to fire much sooner. If the trader ran this exact process on twenty trending markets, most would produce a modest winner or a small loss, and one or two would produce a monster like this. The monster pays for all the small ones. That is how trend-following works, and it is why the trader could not tell you in advance which trade would be the big one.
The wrong lesson from a trade like this is that you should hold every winner for a huge move. The right lesson is that you should let a trailing stop decide the exit, accept that most trades will be stopped for a small gain or loss, and stay in the rare one that keeps running.
The traders on the other side
For every trader who rode gold up, several tried to short it because it looked too high. $3,700 looked like a top. So did $3,900, $4,100, $4,300. Each short was sized to a tight stop because the trader was confident, each stop was hit as gold kept climbing, and several accounts were ground down over weeks of fighting the trend. Picking a top in a strong trend is one of the most expensive habits in trading. The trend was the information. It said up. The traders who respected that made money or stayed out. The traders who argued with it paid.
Frequently asked
Should I try to catch a move like this?
You cannot target a $525 move because you cannot know in advance which trend will run that far. What you can do is trade with the trend at correct size and use a trailing stop, which puts you in position to catch the big one when it happens. Most trades will be small.
How do I trail a stop without getting shaken out?
Trail it below confirmed higher swing lows on the timeframe you are trading, not below every small dip. A daily-chart trend uses daily swing lows. Moving the stop only after a clear higher low forms keeps it outside the noise.
Why not take partial profit on the way up?
Some traders do, closing a fraction at set multiples of risk. The trade-off is that partial profits reduce the size of the eventual big winner, which is where trend-following makes its money. This trader chose not to; it is a valid style choice either way.
Is shorting gold ever a good idea?
In a downtrend, yes. In a strong uptrend, repeatedly shorting because it 'looks high' is one of the fastest ways to lose an account. The trend is the primary information; trade with it or stay out.
What size should a $6,000 account trade gold?
One per cent is $60. With gold's wide stops of $30 to $70, that puts the position around 0.08 to 0.20 lots depending on the stop distance. Gold's volatility forces small positions, which is the protection you want.