EUR/USD Analysis Today: Euro Bounces After Soft US Jobs Print

The majors are moving sharply today after the latest US employment data. In today’s EUR/USD analysis, we look at the Euro’s quick recovery from its recent lows, sparked by a sharp slowdown in US job growth. Spot EUR/USD has climbed back above the 1.1400 handle and is trading near 1.1442 as the market adjusts to the odds of a less aggressive Federal Reserve. Below, we break down the daily chart structure and map out the realistic scenarios for the sessions ahead.

Market Overview

EUR/USD has been locked in a clear downtrend for most of the past quarter. That heavy bearish sentiment is being tested today by a sudden shift in the data. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which had recently rallied on safe-haven flows and firmer Fed expectations, dropped back after Friday morning’s releases. The dollar’s slip gave the Euro enough room to form a short-term bottom, and the resulting short-covering bounce is now testing the major technical breakdown areas.

Fundamental Analysis

The driver behind the Euro’s turnaround is the weaker-than-expected US Non-Farm Payrolls report for June. The US economy added just 57,000 jobs, missing the consensus estimate of 110,000 to 113,000 by a wide margin. Making matters worse, downward revisions to April and May stripped another 74,000 jobs from the previous headline numbers. The US labor market is cooling faster than expected, and the data now confirms it.

Rate markets repriced fast. The probability of an upcoming Federal Reserve rate hike fell to 52%, down from over 64% earlier in the week.

US 10-year Treasury yields eased off their recent highs as a result, removing a core pillar of dollar strength. When the rate gap between the Fed and the European Central Bank narrows, capital tends to flow out of crowded dollar positions and back into majors like the Euro. Worth being honest here: Eurozone fundamentals aren’t particularly strong on their own. This move higher is a softer-dollar story, not a stronger-Euro story.

Technical Analysis

The daily chart shows a mature downtrend going through a standard technical pullback.

Trend and Market Structure

The long-term trend remains bearish. After failing to hold ground below the major Strong High near 1.1840, sellers pushed the market into a steady pattern of lower highs and lower lows. An early-year Change of Character (CHoCH) flipped the macro bias negative, and a clear daily close below horizontal support later locked it in.

More recently, sellers drove price through a major horizontal Break of Structure (BOS) line at 1.1420. That slide eventually found a floor at 1.13250, marked on the chart as a Weak Low.

Price Action and Momentum

After tagging that Weak Low, price spent a few days consolidating before printing a strong bullish daily candle that pushed right back above the broken 1.1420 BOS line. Now trading at 1.14420, the Euro is trying to invalidate the breakdown by turning old resistance into new intraday support.

The 14-day ADX prints at 25.17 and is starting to flatten. A reading around 25 tells us the daily trend is still technically active, but the immediate downward momentum has stalled. That’s the classic retest setup: the market now decides whether this is a genuine reversal or just a corrective bounce before the next leg down.

Trading Signal

With the daily chart bouncing off the Weak Low and a weak NFP print weighing on the dollar, a short-term long on a minor pullback offers a clean, risk-defined setup.

Market Bias: Neutral (Macro) / Bullish Pullback (Short-Term)
Entry Zone: 1.1400 – 1.1425 (buying a retest of the broken structural line)
Stop Loss: 1.1320 (safely below the recent Weak Low)
Take Profit 1: 1.1550 (the bottom of the previous consolidation zone)
Take Profit 2: 1.1640 (the key macro swing high and intermediate CHoCH level)
Risk Reward Ratio: 1:1.60 (to TP1) / 1:2.80 (to TP2)
Confidence Level: Medium
Suggested Holding Period: 1–3 days

Setup Rationale

This trade rides the dollar weakness created by the poor NFP data. Entering near the 1.1420 structural level keeps risk tight. A cooling US labor market plus a clean technical bounce off the Weak Low supports a temporary rally back into the prior distribution zones.

Invalidation Conditions

A daily close below 1.1320 kills this setup completely. A break there would confirm the bounce was a bull trap and open the door for the broader downtrend to target the 1.1250 area.

Bullish Scenario

To change the daily trend, buyers must keep the market above 1.1420 on a daily closing basis. The first upside target is the local resistance area around 1.1550. A clean break above that shelf opens the way to the structural level at 1.16425. If the Euro can trade consistently above 1.16425, that would mark a bullish Change of Character on the daily timeframe, ending the multi-month bearish cycle and shifting focus back toward the Strong High region above 1.1820.

Bearish Scenario

Sellers keep their grip on the higher-timeframe trend as long as price stays below the 1.1640 swing high. To restart the move down, bears need to reject this bounce in the 1.1460–1.1500 area and force a daily close back under 1.1400. If they pull price back below the 1.1420 BOS level, it proves institutional supply is still in control. That would likely trigger a retest of the Weak Low at 1.13250, and a clean break there opens the path to psychological support at 1.1200.

Key Price Levels

Level	Price	Importance
Resistance 2	1.16425	Key structural swing high and daily Change of Character level
Resistance 1	1.15530	Past consolidation support turned major supply zone
Pivot	1.14200	Historical daily horizontal Break of Structure line; current inflection area
Support 1	1.13250	Recent Weak Low providing major structural support
Support 2	1.12500	Macro psychological demand zone visible on long-term charts

What Traders Should Watch Today

US ISM Services PMI: With the labor market slowing, the services data will give clearer clues about overall economic health. Another miss here would trigger more dollar selling.

US 10-year Treasury yields: Keep an eye on the bond market. If the 10-year yield breaks below its recent range, that capital shift would support a higher EUR/USD.

The daily close relative to 1.1420: This is the level that matters most today. A solid close above it shows buyers are serious about defending this bounce.

Conclusion

The daily macro trend is still down, but a bad US jobs report has given Euro buyers room to breathe. The defense of the 1.1325 Weak Low and the push back above 1.1420 show that the immediate downward momentum has run out of steam. Whether this becomes a true reversal or just a pause depends entirely on whether the market can hold above the 1.1420 pivot over the next few days.

Disclaimer: This analysis is provided for educational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice.